Following the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 aircraft, flight J2-8243 on the Baku-Grozny route, numerous speculations have emerged. In an exclusive interview with Caspian Post, Abdullah Agar, Chairman of the Strategic Studies Center at Türkiye's Bahçeşehir University and an expert on terrorism and security, emphasized the need to investigate whether the crash resulted from a technological manipulation.
Was The Incident An Accident, Or Was The Plane Shot Down?
“I believe this situation might be connected to the ongoing war in Ukraine,” Agar remarked. “While we cannot say for certain, we must consider the possibilities. Given Ramzan Kadyrov’s involvement in the conflict, Ukraine had previously targeted critical sites in Chechnya, including Grozny, using drones. In response, Russia deployed air defense missile systems to Chechnya. However, the personnel operating these systems might lack sufficient expertise or, even if trained, could have mistakenly perceived the plane as a threat and shot it down.
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This raises a crucial question: why wasn’t the airspace closed when the air defense systems were active? During wartime, airspace should be restricted. If it remained open and the aircraft approached, leading to its targeting, we must determine if this was an accident, negligence, or incompetence-or possibly all three.”
Could It Have Been Deliberate?
Agar also speculated on the possibility of intentional foul play. “It might have been done as a show of force or warning. Alternatively, it could have been a situation manipulated by Ukraine. In 2018, Israel used technological manipulation in Syria, causing Russian forces to inadvertently shoot down one of their own military aircraft. That incident significantly strained relations between Moscow and Tel Aviv. Could this crash involve a similar scenario? This angle deserves investigation.”
Why Was The Aircraft Denied Landing Clearance?
One of the unresolved questions, Agar noted, is why the aircraft was reportedly denied permission to land. “Normally, the plane should have landed at the nearest airport in the North Caucasus. Instead, it traveled a considerable distance across the Caspian Sea, attempting to land in Kazakhstan. Why did this happen? Was landing clearance denied, communication severed, or was the plane forced to divert? These are unanswered questions, though there are sharp claims that permission was indeed withheld. This could point to an attempt to conceal a serious error. Answers may emerge once the black box is analyzed, but for now, the situation remains highly sensitive.”
Will Russia Apologize If The Truth Comes To Light?
“If it’s proven that Russia was responsible, not only must they apologize, but compensation would also need to be paid,” Agar asserted. “Regardless of the outcome, I believe efforts will be made to prevent relations from escalating into a crisis. However, justice must be sought-and it should be delivered.”
