OPEC+ Set to Boost Oil Production by 386,000 bpd Starting July

According to OPEC data, OPEC+ member countries have the ability to boost production by 386,000 barrels per day, reaching a total of 36.526 million bpd by June, factoring in quotas and compensation volumes, The Caspian Post reports citing Interfax.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Algeria, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman voluntarily cut production by 2.2 million bpd in 2023 and had planned to gradually phase out these restrictions by October 2026 at a pace of 130,000-140,000 bpd per month. However, since May, the countries have deviated from this plan. The eight countries cited a healthy market and favorable outlook as reasons for the accelerated increase. Quotas were raised by 411,000 bpd each in May, June and July.

At the same time, production quotas are being reduced by compensation volumes for previously underdelivered cuts.

From January 2024 to April 2025, underdelivered cuts reached 4.6 million bpd. Iraq exceeded production by nearly 2 million bpd, Kazakhstan by 1.3 million bpd and Russia by 0.7 million bpd. These countries have pledged to compensate for these volumes and submitted corresponding schedules.

However, Kazakhstan said it will not cut oil production that was increased earlier this year with the launch of new capacity at the Tengiz field. Since February, the country has been producing approximately 300,000-400,000 bpd above agreed levels.

Analysts believe Kazakhstan has no further potential for increases. Only a few deal participants have this potential, particularly Saudi Arabia.

In May, OPEC+ countries participating in the agreement (Iran, Venezuela and Libya vote in favor but are exempt from quotas) produced 50,000 bpd below target.

This shortfall is primarily due to countries unable to reach their agreed production levels - Azerbaijan, Congo, Mexico, Sudan and South Sudan.

The quotas for all OPEC+ member countries remain unchanged throughout 2025-2026.