Chinese refiners have sharply increased their purchases of Russian crude oil, helping to offset a decline in shipments to India, long considered Moscow’s largest buyer of seaborne crude, according to Bloomberg vessel-tracking data.

Russian oil deliveries to Chinese ports averaged 2.09 million barrels per day in the first 18 days of February. That compares with 1.72 million barrels per day in January and 1.39 million barrels per day in December, reflecting a strong upward trend. The higher volumes have more than compensated for weaker demand from India, The Caspian Post reports, citing Bloomberg.

In contrast, India’s imports of Russian crude have remained around 1.2 million barrels per day in recent months, down from 1.78 million barrels per day in November and roughly 40% below a peak reached in June last year.

Securing reliable buyers remains crucial for Moscow as the war in Ukraine nears its fourth year. Millions of barrels of Russian crude have reportedly been stored at sea due to longer shipping routes and logistical delays, while signs suggest that domestic production and drilling activity are coming under increasing strain.

At the same time, Indian refiners have faced pressure from the United States to curb crude purchases from Moscow. The extent and duration of any reductions are expected to depend on the progress of ongoing trade discussions between Washington and New Delhi.

The shift in trade flows has led to a buildup of approximately 140 million barrels of Russian oil on the water - including both floating storage and cargoes in transit - representing an increase of more than 60% since the end of August, when India began reducing purchases and China stepped in more aggressively.

When Indian buyers first started turning away from Russia’s flagship Urals crude in August, Chinese refiners - including Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co. - moved quickly to acquire discounted cargoes, purchasing at least 10 shipments. In the months that followed, the company’s large refining complex became China’s single-largest buyer of Urals after UK and EU sanctions restricted its access to other sour crude grades, prompting a pivot toward Russian supplies. The refiner also imports the ESPO blend shipped from Russia’s Far East.

More recently, additional private Chinese refiners have shown interest in Urals as discounts deepened. According to traders involved in the transactions, prices for Urals delivered to China have fallen to as much as $12 per barrel below ICE Brent in recent weeks, reflecting weaker Indian demand and the growing availability of Russian cargoes.