Analysts at the American investment bank Morgan Stanley have forecast that the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus in 2027, driven by increased exports from the Persian Gulf region and a recovery in disrupted oil flows.

According to a report by Reuters citing Morgan Stanley's projections, the global oil supply surplus is expected to reach 4.8 million barrels per day in 2027, as demand growth is anticipated to lag substantially behind rising production, The Caspian Post informs.

The analysts said the projected imbalance will be largely driven by the restoration of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which would facilitate increased oil exports from the region. The gradual rise in crude oil production among Middle Eastern countries is also expected to contribute to the growing surplus.

Morgan Stanley experts noted that developments in US-Iran relations will play a crucial role in shaping market conditions. They believe that, in the event of a comprehensive and long-term ceasefire agreement between the two countries, oil flows disrupted by conflict in the Middle East could be restored rapidly.

Under such a scenario, analysts at financial group Citi forecast that global oil prices could decline to around $70 per barrel during the October-December period.