Experts: US Tariffs Unlikely to Dent Kazakhstan’s Economy

Kazakhstan is expected to feel limited economic consequences from the US decision to introduce a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Kazakhstan, effective August 1, 2025, according to leading political and financial analysts.

The measure was formally announced in a letter from US President Donald Trump to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and marks part of a broader effort by Washington to address what it describes as unbalanced trade relations, The Caspian Post reports via Kazakh media.

Commenting on the development via his Telegram channel, Kazakh political analyst Gaziz Abishev pointed out that the spring proposal had initially suggested a 27 per cent tariff, but the final rate was reduced to 25 per cent. He emphasized that the overall impact would be minimal, as 92 per cent of Kazakhstan’s exports to the US are excluded from the tariff list. These exempted goods include uranium, hydrocarbons, ferroalloys, and precious metals.

In 2024, Kazakhstan’s total exports reached $81.6 billion, with $2 billion directed to the US-just 2.5 per cent of the country's global trade volume. Of this, only about $160 million worth of goods-approximately 8 per cent of the US-bound exports-will be affected by the new tariff. The expected additional revenue for the US government from these measures is estimated to be tens of millions of dollars annually.

Abishev suggested that the Kazakh government is unlikely to respond with retaliatory measures, preferring a cautious and observant stance. “This is part of a global trend of rising protectionism. Investors understand that such steps are politically driven,” he said. “It remains to be seen how these tariffs will affect US inflation, industry, and relations with other trading partners.”

Supporting this view, financial analyst Andrey Chebotaryov noted that most Kazakh exports fall under US exemptions, as outlined in federal trade regulations. In his own Telegram post, he added that only select categories-including phosphorus, ferrosilicon, lenses, wheat gluten, and ammonium nitrate-are targeted by the tariffs. In 2024, these categories represented just $95.2 million, or 4.8 per cent of Kazakhstan’s total exports to the US.