Tajikistan, one of the former Soviet republics, finds itself squeezed between mountains and more powerful neighbors due to its geography and an unfortunate confluence of historical circumstances. With a relatively weak economy, the country is striving to secure reliable partners who can help it carve out a place in the global division of labor.
In recent years, the presence of Chinese-Tajik companies has been growing. More than 300 projects involving China are underway in the republic, and over 70 joint enterprises are operating. New Chinese technologies are not only helping to reduce production costs but also minimizing harmful emissions. Alongside industrial development, Chinese-Tajik enterprises are addressing issues related to education and employment for the country’s citizens. The volume of Chinese investments has been increasing year by year, surpassing $3 billion over the past 15 years.
However, as the saying goes, "the devil is in the details." Given Tajikistan's fragile economy and the need to repay loans, the country has been forced to cede land in exchange for debt relief. In 1999, following a border agreement, Tajikistan handed over 200 square kilometers to China. In 2011, an additional 1,100 square kilometers were transferred in exchange for Beijing agreeing to write off part of Tajikistan’s national debt. Although China has not made additional territorial demands for now, its broader territorial claims extend to 28,000 square kilometers of Tajikistan’s land. If this trend continues, Tajiks may soon find themselves without a homeland, forced to seek refuge in other countries.
When it comes to relations with the United States, security remains the primary area of cooperation, given that Tajikistan shares a border with Afghanistan-a source of radical ideology, drug trafficking, and other security threats. U.S.-Tajik cooperation in this sector focuses on strengthening border security and countering international terrorism. In addition, both countries are interested in expanding bilateral trade and investment. With potential in hydropower and agriculture, Tajikistan is exploring opportunities to attract American capital into these key industries.
However, the U.S. is not in a hurry to invest in this unfamiliar and distant region of Central Asia. The American strategic mindset appears to underestimate the enormous potential of these countries. Additionally, closer ties between Tajikistan and Washington do not sit well with Russia, which plays a crucial role in securing the Afghan-Tajik border. Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, has warned Tajikistan against aligning too closely with the U.S.
Further complicating matters, then-President Donald Trump issued executive orders that curtailed USAID’s operations and temporarily halted spending on most foreign aid grants for 90 days. Over the years of Tajikistan’s independence, the U.S. has invested more than $1.8 billion in the country’s development. In 2024, bilateral Tajik-American trade amounted to only about $100 million, while direct U.S. investments in Tajikistan's economy from 2014 to 2022 totaled approximately $500 million. These figures reflect the near-zero interest of the American elite in Tajikistan or the broader region.
Moreover, in recent years, the U.S. itself has been seeking foreign investments. Saudi Arabia and Japan have each pledged to inject between $600 billion and $1 trillion into the American economy. Against this backdrop, Russia remains Tajikistan’s main economic partner.
In 2024, Gazprom Neft - Tajikistan solidified its position as the country’s leading fuel supplier. According to Tajikistan’s Antimonopoly Service, the country imported 450,800 tons of gasoline last year, valued at over $336 million, with Gazprom Neft - Tajikistan accounting for 45.8% of the supply. A similar trend was observed in diesel fuel imports: of the 502,400 tons imported for $391.3 million, Gazprom Neft - Tajikistan supplied 45.3%. The company also accounted for 9.4% of the total liquefied gas imports, with 16 companies collectively delivering about 369,000 tons of this fuel in 2024.
Despite Gazprom Neft - Tajikistan being included in the U.S. sanctions list in January 2025, Tajikistan’s Minister of Energy and Water Resources, Daler Juma, assured that fuel supplies remain stable. He explained that while the sanctions impact maritime shipments, imports from Russia to Tajikistan are conducted via rail and road transport.
Public sentiment in Tajikistan also leans toward deeper integration with Russia: about 69% of the population supports joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Iran has also been making efforts to strengthen ties with Tajikistan, leveraging linguistic and cultural similarities between the two nations. The visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian highlighted this growing relationship. Pezeshkian expressed gratitude for the warm reception by the Tajik government and people, calling the prospects for cooperation between the two countries-sharing a common heritage, culture, and language-"promising."
During the visit, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon praised the high level of cooperation, emphasizing that bilateral relations have been progressing in all areas over the past two to three years. The two presidents are expected to discuss key aspects of economic, energy, and cultural collaboration.
Pezeshkian, in turn, reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to comprehensive cooperation, stating, "We can strengthen our relations in all spheres and support each other."
Tajikistan’s First Deputy Foreign Minister, Ismatullo Nasreddin, recently visited Tehran, discussing the removal of visa requirements between the two countries. He expressed hope that increased tourism and business exchanges would lead to deeper people-to-people connections between Tajikistan and Iran.
Photo: mehrnews.com
In 2021, Tajik-Iranian trade exceeded $120 million-2.1 times more than in 2020. However, direct Iranian investments in Tajikistan’s economy amounted to only about $33 million in 2021, reflecting both the weakness of the Tajik market and the constraints of Iran’s sanctions-hit economy.
As the situation stands, Tajikistan’s choices are limited. While it explores cooperation with multiple global players, Russia remains its most reliable partner-offering traditional goods, services, and economic stability in an otherwise uncertain geopolitical landscape.
