By Tural Heybatov
The tragedy of flight Baku-Grozny left little doubt about its nature from the outset. Photographic and video evidence from the crash site of the Embraer 190 aircraft, operated by AZAL, clearly indicated that the disaster was not caused by technical malfunctions, weather conditions, or crew error. The aircraft was fully operational, and the crew acted professionally. Yet, tragic circumstances led to the crash. It was only due to the exceptional professionalism and heroism of the pilots that half of the passengers survived-an exceedingly rare outcome in aviation disasters of this magnitude.
An investigation is underway, with the recovered "black box" being analyzed according to international aviation standards. While the final findings are pending, a preliminary version has already been announced, leaving little room for doubt.
Reuters/Azamat Sarsenbayev
According to Euronews, citing unnamed sources, the crash near Aktau was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile launched during drone activity over Grozny. Azerbaijani media corroborated this account, referencing government sources. Reports indicate that the missile detonated in close proximity to the aircraft, with its shrapnel piercing the fuselage, breaching the exterior, and injuring passengers and crew. Moreover, the plane’s GPS navigation systems were jammed by electronic warfare equipment, leaving it without communication.
This version aligns with insider information that has surfaced in Russian Telegram channels. Due to disrupted navigation, the damaged aircraft was unable to land in Grozny, Makhachkala, or any nearby airport. Instead, the Russian authorities redirected the plane to Kazakhstan, despite more viable alternatives for an emergency landing being available.
The immediate question that arose was: why did the aircraft bound for Grozny end up in Aktau? While the investigation is ongoing, one unsettling theory suggests that, realizing the consequences of their actions, the Russian authorities sought to obscure the incident by denying the plane access to North Caucasus airports, possibly intending for it to crash into the sea.
The theory of a bird strike has been entirely discredited. All available evidence points to damage caused by missile fragments. At the time of the plane’s departure from Baku, a skirmish involving Russian air defense systems and Ukrainian drones was underway over Chechnya. However, Azerbaijani authorities were not notified of the military activity, and flight 8432, unaware of the danger, proceeded on its usual Wednesday route to Grozny, ultimately becoming a casualty of another nation’s conflict.
Credit: X / @yarotrof
Thanks to the pilots’ skill and bravery, more than 30 of the 67 people onboard survived. Had the aircraft plunged into the sea, no one would have lived. Despite these heroic efforts, a fuel explosion following the emergency landing claimed several lives.
Survivors now face a long road to recovery, enduring medical treatments and psychological rehabilitation. For the families of those who perished, there is only grief-a sorrow shared by all who have followed this tragedy.
While discussions of accountability are still premature, the evidence leaves little doubt about culpability. The Russian side, albeit unintentionally, caused the deaths of dozens of people. Although the missile strike on a civilian aircraft was likely accidental, this does not absolve those responsible for managing the North Caucasus air defense systems.
Russia must acknowledge its responsibility and issue a formal apology to Azerbaijan for the downing of the Embraer 190 passenger plane operated by AZAL. Admitting fault and taking corrective measures would demonstrate whether the nation truly deserves its status as a great power. Once the investigation concludes, it will be imperative to hold those responsible to account and ensure such tragedies never occur again.
We hope our northern neighbor will act justly and in accordance with these expectations.
