Why India Continues Buying Russian Oil Despite U.S. Pressure

Russia’s leading energy expert of the National Energy Security Fund, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation says New Delhi has no economic incentive to reduce imports of discounted Russian oil, despite political pressure from the United States.

Speaking to The Caspian Post, Igor Yushkov stressed that Washington’s recent sanctions and political statements are aimed at increasing costs for Russian producers - not at reducing supply to the global market. He noted that India currently imports around 1.6-1.7 million barrels per day of Russian oil, which makes it the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude.

According to him, Trump’s latest claim that he convinced Prime Minister Narendra Modi to cut oil purchases from Russia led to a speculative spike in prices - even though India has not confirmed any changes.

“For India, abandoning Russian oil would be extremely unprofitable,” Yushkov explained. “It buys Russian barrels at about $60 each. If India stops, not only will it lose this discount - but oil prices globally could double.”

He reminded that a similar situation occurred in 2022, when global oil benchmarks exceeded $120 per barrel as Russia redirected oil flows from Europe to Asia due to Western sanctions.

Such a development would hit both India and the United States, Yushkov underlined. Higher global prices would again push U.S. fuel costs to record highs, causing political consequences for the White House - just as Republicans strongly criticized President Biden for soaring energy prices two years ago.

“Trump does not want to repeat a scenario where he himself becomes the target of criticism,” the Russian expert added.

“Therefore, U.S. pressure on India is aimed at securing better trade terms - not at blocking Russian oil entirely.”

Yushkov emphasized that Russia would still be able to redirect oil flows to China if necessary, but the transition would temporarily reduce production, create a global supply deficit and push prices sharply upward.