By Tural Heybatov
Speaking at the opening of the Global Baku Forum, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated: "We have still not received an answer as to how the Armenian army managed to acquire the Iskander-M missile system. Let me reiterate - this missile is prohibited from export by Russia. And for those who doubt my words, they can see the Iskander-M with their own eyes at our Military Trophy Park, which is just a 5-10 minute drive from here."
The head of state brought up the issue of the Iskanders on March 15-a significant date, as exactly four years earlier, during a mine clearance operation in the city of Shusha, the remains of two exploded missiles were discovered. Notably, the wreckage of an Iskander-M missile was found just 200 meters from the Ghazanchi Church. Fortunately, the missile failed to reach its target and landed in an uninhabited area. Had it struck the church, nothing would have remained of the structure.
Representatives of ANAMA put the wreckages of Iskander missiles on display in Baku, Azerbaijan / Courtesy
A technical examination conducted by specialists at Azerbaijan’s National Agency for Mine Action (ANAMA) identified the missile remains based on its serial number (9M723), confirming that they belonged to the Iskander-M missile system-not the export variant, Iskander-E, but the restricted Iskander-M, which is exclusively used within Russia and not permitted for export. The Armenian side, predictably, denied any involvement, claiming it neither possessed nor had ever possessed such weaponry. Meanwhile, Russian authorities, through Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, also stated they had no knowledge of the matter.
However, the wreckage had been found, and an explanation was necessary. In Armenia, some alleged that Azerbaijanis had fabricated the serial number on the debris. Russian experts, on the other hand, offered a more creative theory-one political analyst suggested that the missile fragments had been transported to Shusha from Syria with Türkiye’s assistance, where they had been used by Russian forces in attacks on Idlib. This version was quickly embraced and expanded upon by Armenian commentators, despite the silence from official Moscow.
Photo credit: caliber.az
At the time, President Ilham Aliyev noted Moscow’s silence and expressed Azerbaijan’s disappointment, stating:
"The discovery of Iskander-M missiles in Shusha and the continued lack of a clear response to this issue naturally cause regret and surprise among the Azerbaijani people and leadership. We hope that this matter will be clarified. Relations between strategic partners should be built on sincerity."
Aliyev’s remarks at the Global Baku Forum confirm that this long-awaited clarification never came. How did the Iskander-M end up in Armenia? Where did the missile come from, if, as Yerevan claimed, Armenia never possessed such weapons?
Photo credit: Azertac
The assertion that Armenia never had Iskanders contradicts the 2016 military parade in Yerevan. The appearance of these missile systems was met with great enthusiasm, as they were presented as a means of "deterring Azerbaijan" after the April clashes. Yet, even then, neither Yerevan nor Moscow provided a clear explanation regarding whether the displayed Iskander belonged to Armenia or Russia. Officially, Yerevan claimed to have purchased the missile system from Russia and integrated it into its armed forces. However, this was false, as Armenia neither had the financial resources to acquire such weaponry nor the ability to purchase a non-export model. Or did it? That question remains for Russia to answer.
According to one theory, Russia, acting out of "brotherly" sentiment, allowed Armenia to showcase the Iskanders during the parade, after which the systems were returned to the 102nd Russian military base. During the Second Karabakh War, the missile systems were allegedly moved back out of the Russian base to allow Armenian forces to use them. There were also rumors that Armenia had access to Iskander-E systems, which formally remained under Russian ownership and control. These rumors were likely spread to downplay the controversy and avoid a diplomatic scandal between Moscow and Baku. However, after the Iskander wreckage was found near Shusha, the Russian side claimed ignorance. In fact, the once highly publicized missile systems suddenly disappeared from view, as if they had never existed. Missile fragments had been found, yet the Iskanders themselves were nowhere to be seen-almost as if by magic.
But magic aside, as prominent Russian journalist Alexei Venediktov put it, someone will eventually have to answer for the Iskander scandal:
"Because this is a serious matter. You have Iskanders in Armenia that are supposed to be exclusive to Russian forces, not an export variant. This is a rather uncomfortable situation. There is no real answer to it."
The most troubling part is that even now, there is still no answer.
Notably, it was official Yerevan that first announced the use of Iskander missiles against Azerbaijani cities during the 44-day war. In November 2020, former Chief of Military Control at Armenia’s Ministry of Defense, Movses Hakobyan, confirmed their use. Later, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in response to criticism from former President Serzh Sargsyan about the delayed use of Iskanders, complained about the missiles’ poor quality, claiming they either failed to detonate or only exploded "by 10 percent." He also stated that the missiles were used to strike Shusha. Despite this, Armenia continued to deny using the prohibited weapons.
Before the Iskander missile remains were discovered in Shusha, the Russian Ministry of Defense, which officially controls the Iskander-E systems stationed in Armenia, had insisted that they were not used during the 44-day war. But how does that align with the discovered wreckage, which was not from the export variant, but from the Iskander-M, used exclusively by Russian forces?
When this question led to a dead end, a new theory emerged-smuggling. Reports surfaced that the Iskander-M systems, which are banned from export, had allegedly been stolen (imagine that!) from Russian military stockpiles and secretly transported to Armenia, supposedly with the knowledge of the authorities.
Interestingly, Russian analysts were less concerned about the use of the prohibited Iskander-M than they were about defending the system’s "honor" after Pashinyan’s criticism. Russian experts argued that the missiles’ failure to detonate properly was due to the rush in which they were transferred. Furthermore, they pointed to Armenia’s improper handling and lack of technical expertise. According to specialists, the Iskander system is not just a launch module but a complex set of equipment requiring precise calibration and deep technical knowledge for an accurate strike. As a result, the Armenian side was unable to properly guide the missile. There is also speculation that Armenia lacked the necessary codes to conduct a full-fledged combat launch.
The smuggling theory-that Armenian middlemen from the diaspora illicitly acquired the missiles-did not surprise Baku. During the war, Azerbaijan had confirmed that large quantities of weapons had been covertly transferred from Russia to Armenia. The Azerbaijani government had informed Russia at the highest levels and through official diplomatic channels. Formal letters were also sent to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), detailing the flight numbers of the illegal arms shipments. However, no response was ever received. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani authorities had a clear understanding of who in Russia’s Armenian diaspora had facilitated the weapons transfers, who organized the flights, and how they were carried out.
All Baku expected from Moscow was honesty. Just as Azerbaijan expected sincerity from its strategic partner after the tragic downing of a civilian aircraft near Aktau. Transparency and cooperation in such matters could have eased tensions.
Moscow could not have failed to realize that the use of Iskanders put Russia in a difficult position. And Azerbaijan was fortunate that the Armenian side failed to properly deploy this devastating weapon. Had the missiles reached their target and exploded in Shusha, the city would have been obliterated-and the conversation today would be entirely different.
