The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Azerbaijan’s GDP growth at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, according to its April World Economic Outlook.

Compared to its February estimates, the IMF has slightly upgraded the 2026 forecast by 0.1 percentage points, while the projection for 2027 remains unchanged, The Caspian Post reports, citing local media.

Overall, this places Azerbaijan’s average annual economic growth at 2.35% over the next two years.

Across the broader Middle East and Central Asia region, the IMF expects economic growth to slow from 3.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, before rebounding to 4.6% in 2027. This trajectory reflects the region’s exposure to the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, followed by an anticipated recovery.

Within the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion, growth is projected to reach 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.

The IMF notes that commodity-exporting countries directly affected by the conflict face significant downward revisions to their 2026 GDP growth forecasts. These revisions depend on the extent of damage to energy and transport infrastructure, as well as reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and the availability of alternative export routes.

At the same time, the IMF highlights continued positive momentum in the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion. “The growth momentum experienced over the past few years is expected to continue, with aggregate GDP growth for the group revised upward in 2026 and 2027 by a cumulative 0.3 percentage point,” the report states.

Globally, economic growth is forecast to average 3.1% annually between 2028 and 2031. This remains below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019, largely due to slower growth in China. Growth is also expected to moderate across other major regions, including Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North America, and Europe.

According to the IMF’s February projections, Azerbaijan’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 2.5% per year between 2028 and 2031.

Domestic forecasts present a more optimistic outlook. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy expects GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, while the Central Bank projects growth at 2.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

Estimates from international rating agencies vary. S&P Global forecasts growth of 2% in 2026, while Fitch Ratings and Moody’s both project 2.5%. The Asian Development Bank expects Azerbaijan’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

Other international institutions offer similar projections. The Netherlands-based ING Group forecasts economic growth of 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development projects 2% growth in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

According to the World Bank, Azerbaijan’s GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, while United Nations estimates place growth at 2.7% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.

In 2025, Azerbaijan’s economy expanded by 1.4%.