To attract more Western investment and avoid overreliance on China, the Central Asian nations need greater regulatory transparency and deeper regional integration.

On the eve of the attack on Iran, the Trump administration increased orders for critical minerals such as tungsten that are vital for the production of missiles and munitions, The Caspian Post reports via The National Interest.

Yet American backing for the tungsten megaproject in Kazakhstan between Cove Kaz Capital and Tau-Ken Samruk, brokered by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick during the C5+1 Summit in November 2026, is still pending. Letters of Interest from Ex-Im Bank ($900 million) and the US International Development Finance Corporation ($700 million) go in the right direction. But it remains far from a done deal.

This matters for both the national security of the United States and the sovereignty of Central Asia. As US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained, the United States will cooperate economically with China except where monopoly practices, like in critical minerals, impede American independence. De-risking can “probably [be] completely resolved in four years,” he said. That goal is behind the Trump administration’s initiatives to stabilize demand under Project Vault, the US strategic critical minerals reserve, and strengthen global supply chains through FORGE, the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement.

Central Asian states-particularly Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan-are keen to contribute. They promote the region’s comparative advantage in critical mineral and rare earth element (REE) resources. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s rhetorical support for transactional deals with Central Asia is strong, for good reason.

China captures the largest share of selected critical mineral exports from Central Asia, up from approximately 50 percent in 2020 to 70 percent in 2023. China is also the largest foreign investor in Central Asian mining. Without alternative markets and investors, Central Asia inadvertently supports the Chinese production monopoly.

Central Asians want Western investment to diversify partners and technologically upgrade mining production, from extraction to processing. The opportunities are vast, including the purported trillions of dollars in unexplored deposits recently announced in Uzbekistan. For both sides, pundits say, the time has come for implementation.

But what is there to implement? Private Western investors are looking beyond announcements for bankable projects that meet commercial risk appetite and long-term revenue expectations. Critical mineral and REE resources are distributed around the planet, but data on reserves (economically verified deposits) in Central Asia are limited.

Fundamentally, Central Asia is less attractive to Western investment than advanced market economies and established producers because it lacks many “must-haves” for bankable projects. These include contract security, fair commercial arbitration, regulatory transparency and predictability, solid project economics, and compliance with international environmental, labor, and social standards.

Logistically, it is difficult to reach global markets from Central Asia without going through Russia, China, or Iran. Westward transport routes across the Caspian Sea (the Middle Corridor) are improving but still need to achieve exponential gains in reliability.

Notwithstanding these challenges, there is a compelling national security rationale for the US government to support production and transport routes that deepen American presence on the doorstep of China and Russia. US agencies should financially back private projects in Central Asia’s frontier market that meet key criteria. The Cove-Kaz Capital joint venture with Tau-Ken Samruk in Kazakhstan-reportedly the largest undeveloped tungsten deposit in the world-is a strategic example on multiple levels: national security, industrial policy, and ownership structure.

Outside Central Asia, there is intense international interest in American initiatives to diversify critical minerals supply chains away from China. The February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, which reframed the Biden-era Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), attracted 54 countries and the European Commission. Over 30 public and private entities from the United States and participating countries are recipients of US Government loans, equity stakes, and contingent commitments. Kazakhstan is the only country listed from Central Asia.

Importantly, Uzbekistan signed an agreement with the United States in February 2026 that “outlines the intent of the signatories to establish a Joint Investment Framework” for critical minerals, energy, and infrastructure projects. It is positive to pair American diplomatic engagement with an implementation mechanism, albeit one still on the drawing board. Unlike the US-Australia framework, which includes offtake arrangements and price mechanisms, the Uzbek agreement is generic. But it gives Uzbekistan a stimulus to meet the expectations of Western investors.

President Donald Trump’s policy priorities and openness to deals with authoritarian regimes give Central Asia its best shot at attracting broader American investment, if not immediately, then in a step-by-step program. Central Asian states that wish to prepare bankable projects for Western investment should receive strong support from the Trump administration. Instead of cutting one-off deals, a regional approach would be more strategic and transformative for US foreign policy.

Building on the agreement between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to cooperate on rare-earth metals production, the United States could use the C5+1 format to facilitate the formation of a Central Asian consortium to advance the development of strategic critical minerals. It would deepen current US initiatives or identify new ones, such as training and technical assistance to adopt international standards for mineral classification and mining practices. The United States should actively coordinate with the OECD and the EBRD on mining-sector modernization to support the “must-haves” and finance pre-feasibility studies for a pipeline of bankable projects.

Rather than compete for limited pools of financing, consortium members could join forces to develop integrated supply chains based on local comparative advantage, thereby increasing the region’s attractiveness to Western investors.

Central Asia should seize the day. Aside from unlocking a new growth engine-important as that is-adopting international standards means casting off Soviet-style industrialization. Bankable mineral projects contain a greater good for business, the environment, and society. They represent values that create new companies, economize scarce energy and water, protect workers, engage communities, and support social peace.

The Trump administration has an opportunity to strengthen US national security not just by backing priority investments but also by maintaining the values that distinguish the West from China in Central Asia.

By Marsha McGraw Olive