Russia’s Energy Sector Under Pressure as Oil Output Keeps Falling

Source: Bloomberg

Russia’s Energy Sector Under Pressure as Oil Output Keeps Falling

Russia’s oil production has declined for a sixth consecutive month, with escalating Ukrainian drone attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure contributing to the downturn by disrupting storage and transportation facilities needed to sustain output.

Russian crude and condensate production fell to 9.009 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, down from a recent peak of 9.38 million bpd in November, according to data published by OPEC. This represents a drop of about 370,000 bpd over that period, The Caspian Post reports, citing The Moscow Times.

The continued decline means Russia is now producing approximately 690,000 bpd below its OPEC+ quota, based on Bloomberg calculations using OPEC data.

The reduction underscores the growing pressure on Russia’s energy sector, as repeated strikes on infrastructure affect the logistics required to maintain stable production levels.

Most of the attacks last month targeted fuel production facilities, causing Russian refinery throughput to fall to its lowest level since 2009.

Processing volumes declined further in June, dropping to their lowest level in two decades during the first days of the month, according to consultancy Energy Aspects.

The collapse in refining has helped free up additional volumes of crude oil for export, particularly after Russia restored operations at Baltic and Black Sea ports that had been damaged during heavy Ukrainian attacks earlier this year.

Seaborne crude exports averaged 3.64 million bpd in the four weeks to May 31, up from 3.17 million bpd in the four weeks to April 17, when Ukrainian strikes on ports and export infrastructure were particularly intense.

Higher export volumes are expected to support revenues for oil companies and trading intermediaries involved in Russian crude sales.

However, analysts note that the federal budget relies primarily on the mineral extraction tax levied on oil production rather than on export revenues themselves.

As a result, a sustained decline in output could weigh on government revenues even if exports remain resilient.

Oil and gas income remains one of the Kremlin's most important sources of funding, accounting for roughly a quarter to a third of federal budget revenues in recent years.

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Russia’s Energy Sector Under Pressure as Oil Output Keeps Falling

Russia’s oil production has declined for a sixth consecutive month, with escalating Ukrainian drone attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure contributing to the downturn by disrupting storage and transportation facilities needed to sustain output.