2024 marks significant strides in Türkiye’s path to becoming a global power, with its actions being closely monitored by the international community. From its active role in the Syrian conflict to its demonstration of strength among regional nations, Türkiye’s trajectory has been a subject of considerable attention. In an exclusive interview with News.az Ersan Ergür, a Turkish expert on security and strategy, discusses these developments .
- What are the details of the agreement regarding Kazakhstan's purchase of UAVs from Türkiye, and how will this cooperation strengthen the strategic relations between the two nations?
- The cooperation encompasses multiple fields, including defense industries, transportation, economy, and education. In 2022, Türkiye and Kazakhstan signed several agreements spanning transportation, trade, education, agriculture, customs, and logistics. These agreements also included collaboration in defense and military intelligence, culminating in the UAV purchase deal.
This agreement is highly significant, as military doctrines and defense products in the region have traditionally been dominated by Russia. Initial cooperation in this area began with Azerbaijan and has now extended to Kazakhstan, a critical step forward. This collaboration is likely to expand to other Turkic republics and allied nations.
Such partnerships not only deepen ties between Türkiye and Kazakhstan but also enhance the political and economic relations among all member states of the Organization of Turkic States. In Central Asia, around 70-80% of trade is conducted through Russia and China, whereas trade with Türkiye and the Islamic world remains at 15-20%. This cooperation will boost intra-regional trade, creating mutual economic benefits while reducing the profits reaped by competing nations.
In particular, military collaboration fosters not only economic independence but also military self-reliance, ensuring that any threats to peace or sovereignty in the region can be effectively countered. Türkiye's proven capabilities in defense have already made it a formidable power among regional nations, and transferring this expertise to Kazakhstan is a pivotal step toward rebalancing the regional power dynamics in favor of Turkic states.
- What are Türkiye’s primary strategies in Syria, and how might they impact the regional balance of power?
- Türkiye aims to establish political and domestic stability in Syria, starting with the elimination of terrorism. Priority has been given to dismantling PKK and YPG groups, a process that involves intensified diplomatic engagements with the U.S., Russia, and Iran. The goal is to prevent a renewed civil war and encourage terrorist factions to disarm and reconcile with the new Syrian government. Should these efforts fail, military operations remain a viable option.
Economic reconstruction is equally critical. Rebuilding Syria's transportation infrastructure and restoring its educational system-severely disrupted during the war-are among Türkiye’s strategic priorities. Türkiye has provided educational support since 2016 and will continue to do so.
Another critical goal is ensuring the safe return of Syrian refugees. Achieving internal security and launching economic projects will enable displaced Syrians to return to their homeland in safety and dignity. Strengthening Syria’s military and defense capabilities is another cornerstone of Türkiye’s strategy, as a robust Syrian military can deter external threats and stabilize the region.
Türkiye is also committed to rebuilding police and law enforcement institutions in Syria, although these efforts will require substantial time and resources. International support, particularly from Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, is essential to ensure these initiatives succeed.
- How is the new Syrian government shaping its stance toward the Kurdish population, and how critical is this for domestic stability and international relations?
- The new Syrian government under President Ahmad al-Sharaa has taken a conciliatory approach, issuing a general amnesty that includes various factions, excluding those involved in criminal activities. Historically, there has been no significant animosity between Kurds and the broader Syrian population, and during the conflict, PKK and YPG have not directly clashed with groups representing the Syrian government.
The government’s current rhetoric suggests a commitment to restoring Syria’s 2011 territorial integrity, advocating for equal demographic representation within governance structures. However, if PKK and YPG persist in maintaining arms and aligning with U.S. interests, tensions could escalate, leading to further conflicts. Türkiye's support will play a crucial role in mitigating these risks and fostering stability.
Syria's historical practice of regional councils comprising representatives from local communities-whether Arab or Kurdish-is expected to continue. Türkiye’s experience in governance since 2016 provides a valuable blueprint for such initiatives.
- Will Iran and Russia risk losing their foothold in Syria, or will they take measures to reinforce their positions?
- Both Iran and Russia are grappling with setbacks in Syria, a region where they have invested heavily since 2015. Russia’s expectations of leveraging military investments for economic and strategic dominance, including control over Syria’s reconstruction, have largely been deferred.
Russia is unlikely to pursue direct confrontations, given its critical economic ties with Türkiye amid Western sanctions. Instead, it appears to favor a more collaborative approach with Türkiye to safeguard its interests in Syria.
Iran, on the other hand, is deeply entrenched in the region. Despite setbacks, including the loss of resources and personnel to conflicts in Lebanon and Israel, Iran remains intent on maintaining its influence in Syria. However, Türkiye’s growing dominance has constrained Iran’s capacity to act unilaterally.
While Iran and Russia may provoke localized conflicts, Türkiye’s decisive actions and established control over key regions ensure that broader instability is unlikely. Both countries are increasingly constrained by Türkiye’s growing influence and the region’s evolving dynamics.
- Will Western countries take steps to dismantle Iran's clerical regime?
- Historically, the West played a significant role in establishing Iran’s clerical regime in 1979. The system aligns with Western strategic interests, particularly in counterbalancing regional powers. While public rhetoric from the U.S. and Israel suggests opposition to Iran, their actions often reinforce the status quo, ensuring Iran’s continued relevance in the region.
The West benefits from the controlled tension Iran brings to the region, as it aligns with broader geopolitical strategies. For this reason, it is unlikely that Western powers will actively seek to overthrow the clerical regime. Instead, the current dynamic-a carefully managed balance of confrontation and cooperation-serves their interests.
