Ankara is once again positioned to play the role of a mediator in a crisis that threatens to undermine regional peace and precipitate an economic crisis.

As with previous conflicts in the Middle East, the ongoing Iran war has put the spotlight on Türkiye’s unique position in the military, diplomatic and economic spheres, where it stands ready to play an important role, analysts say.

The United States has at least 19 military bases in the Middle East, and most of them are located in the energy-rich Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Despite the US military presence and its formidable defence system deployed in the region, all of these countries, alongside Jordan and Iraq, have faced Iranian missile strikes as Tehran hit American bases.

While Iranian ballistic missiles and drones are raining down on Gulf cities Türkiye, a NATO member, a non-Arab Middle Eastern power with a strong army, has faced no such nightmare except one missile, which was intercepted by NATO's defence system in the Mediterranean before it could enter Turkish airspace.

At the same time, Türkiye has reinforced its status as a neutral power that seeks to stop the crisis from escalating.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan conveyed his condolences to Tehran following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamene by the Israeli military, but he also sees Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries as unacceptable, warning that the region can be "dragged into a circle of fire."

Türkiye has urged warring sides to end the conflict as soon as possible while terming the US-Israel attack on Iran as a "clear violation" of international law.

Ankara, which has long sought peace for the Ukraine conflict as a neutral state, has also offered to mediate between the US and Iran to secure the cessation of their hostilities.

The Voice of Sanity

“Türkiye has made and will continue to make every effort to end the war. At this stage, the first goal is a ceasefire. Regardless of the circumstances, Türkiye will always pursue a strategy in favour of stability,” says Oral Toga, a researcher at the Ankara-based Centre for Iranian Studies.

Ankara has sufficient experience and capabilities in mediating between adversaries from East Africa to the Ukraine war, says Toga, but the magnitude of the current war fought by three different powers spreading across the Middle East requires “the will of warring sides to negotiate”, Toga tells TRT World.

Yemen's Houthis march in a pro-Iran protest. Iran's Shia allies and Tehran's attacks on Gulf countries can turn the ongoing military confrontation into a regional war.

While Türkiye is a NATO member, it has adopted a neutral position on the Ukraine war as it seeks to keep its ties with Moscow intact. Israel’s undeniable role in sparking the military confrontation with Iran makes the Turkish leadership adopt a neutral position, experts say.

“Türkiye does not want to take a position against Iran. It does not want to be one of the perpetrators of the misfortune of a country with which it has strong historical and cultural ties,” says Ozgur Korpe, an academic at National Defence University.

“Türkiye's position will be determined by Iran's behaviour towards Ankara. Indeed, Türkiye's official statements are in this direction. For these reasons, Türkiye has chosen neutrality as a strategy. And it will continue to do so,” Korpe tells TRT World.

The academic sees that, like the Ukraine war, Türkiye will probably adopt “active neutrality rather than passive neutrality” as its evolving strategic approach toward international crises.

“Türkiye might only become involved in the war if its territory were targeted. This is a risk that neither the currently warring parties would want nor would dare to take,” Korpe adds.

A Haven in Times of Crisis

Experts believe that Türkiye’s anti-war position and its current mediation efforts underline its unique ability to be a regional haven in such crises, from the US invasion of Iraq to the Syrian civil war.

While Türkiye and Iran have political differences on various issues such as post-Assad Syria and Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon, Ankara’s historic ties with Tehran allow Erdogan to understand and deal with the Shia-majority country’s leadership effectively, says Omer Ozgul, a former Turkish army officer who has worked as Türkiye’s military attache in Tehran in the past.

Other experts agree with Ozgul’s assessment.

“There is no reason for Iran to adopt a hostile stance towards Türkiye, and such a move would be a strategic mistake for Iran in many respects, but particularly from the perspective of its war strategies. Therefore, Türkiye will continue to be a safe haven, far from conflict,” says Toga.

This approach also seems to be valid for Gulf countries, whose economies have been heavily dependent on their energy exports and food imports, as well as their cyclical tourism sector.

All Gulf countries face a grim dilemma with the raging war, as Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting vital energy shipments.

Türkiye’s “fair position” toward the region’s conflicts will not go unnoticed by Iran or the Gulf states, says Ozgul. “Türkiye will continue to be a safe haven for both the Gulf states and Iran,” he tells TRT World.

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