World Cup 2026 Odds: Uzbekistan Just 0.2% to Win

A statistical analysis conducted by Opta Analyst’s supercomputer has ranked Uzbekistan among the teams with the lowest probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

According to the model, Spain is the top favorite with a 17% chance of securing the title, followed by France at 14.1% and England at 11.8%, The Caspian Post reports, citing Uzbek media.

In a surprising result, defending champions Argentina are placed fourth, with an 8.7% probability of winning.

Uzbekistan, making its World Cup debut, is estimated to have just a 0.2% chance of lifting the trophy - the same probability assigned to Tunisia, Scotland, South Africa, Australia, and Iran. Overall, more than half of the tournament’s 26 participating teams are assessed to have less than a 1% chance of winning.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place from 11 June to 19 July across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The draw for the tournament is scheduled for 5 December.