ADB Keeps Optimistic Outlook on Tajikistan with 7.4% Growth Forecast

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained a positive economic outlook for Tajikistan, forecasting a robust 7.4 per cent growth rate for 2025.

ADB has trimmed its economic growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific, pointing to rising global trade tensions, changing trade frameworks, and broader geopolitical uncertainty, The Caspian Post reports via Tajik media.

According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025, the region's GDP is now expected to grow by 4.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.5 per cent in 2026, down from April forecasts of 4.9 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively.

The ADB cited higher US tariffs and greater trade policy uncertainty as key factors weighing on regional growth, with potential impacts on exports, supply chains, and investor confidence.

Inflation Trends Remain Moderate

Despite external pressures, inflation in developing Asia is forecast to ease to 1.7 per cent in 2025, helped by falling food and energy prices. However, inflation is expected to rise slightly to 2.1 per cent in 2026 as food prices stabilize.

Central Asia Shows Relative Strength

The Caucasus and Central Asia subregion is expected to outperform much of the region, with its 2025 growth forecast revised upward to 5.5 per cent. However, growth in 2026 is projected to slow slightly to 4.9 per cent, largely due to reduced oil and gas production in some countries.

Tajikistan remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. The ADB maintained its earlier forecasts of 7.4 per cent GDP growth in 2025 and 6.8 per cent in 2026. Inflation in Tajikistan is now expected to be 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 5.2 per cent in 2026, reflecting slight downward revisions from previous estimates.

Risks Loom Over Outlook

The ADB warned that uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, including possible new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, continues to be a major risk to the region’s economic performance. Ongoing US-China trade tensions, potential financial market volatility, geopolitical instability, and further weakening in China’s property market could also dampen growth prospects.

While the region continues demonstrating resilience, the ADB emphasized the need for structural reforms, stronger trade partnerships, and enhanced policy coordination to navigate the increasingly complex global economic environment.