Experts: Solar Power Alone Won’t Solve Tajikistan’s Energy Woes

Tajikistan has ambitious plans to expand solar energy, but experts warn it won’t fully solve the country’s electricity challenges-at least not until energy conservation improves.

At the Dushanbe Invest 2025 forum in October, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Energy and Water Resources signed agreements with international and local companies to build solar power plants with a combined capacity of 2,000 MW-over 25 per cent of the country’s current total energy capacity of around 6,000 MW, The Caspian Post informs via Tajik media.

Key deals include:

China’s Wuhan Building Material Industry: 500 MW in Sughd province, with additional solutions for emissions control and renewable energy production.

Tajik company “Ayon Energy”: 500 MW in Sughd and Khatlon, highlighting private sector involvement.

China’s Ejing Technology: 500 MW in Khatlon to diversify regional energy sources.

Russia’s Rosatom Renewable Energy: Up to 500 MW, with joint projects and expertise exchange.

Despite these initiatives, solar energy production remains minimal. In 2024, solar contributed just 1.5 million kWh-or 0.01% of total electricity. Yet Tajikistan’s climate is ideal, with 220-330 sunny days per year depending on the region and solar radiation averaging 4.5-5.5 kWh/m² per day.

Pros of Solar Energy in Tajikistan:

Year-round availability, especially in winter when hydropower declines.

Rapid installation and scalability, even in remote areas.

Low operating costs and environmental benefits.

International funding opportunities from the World Bank, ADB, and Green Climate Fund.

Challenges:

Production depends on sunlight and weather.

Storage solutions are needed, raising project costs.

High initial investment, though costs are declining.

Lower energy output per square meter compared to hydropower.

Experts caution that Tajikistan’s heavy reliance on hydropower-its hydro potential ranks 8th in the world and 1st in Central Asia-cannot be easily replaced by solar. Seasonal water shortages, climate change, and glacial melt make consistent energy supply from solar panels alone unreliable in the medium term.

While solar energy can diversify Tajikistan’s energy mix and complement hydropower, it is unlikely to fully solve electricity shortages until storage technologies and energy-saving measures are widely implemented.