Tajikistan Faces Rising Foreign Trade Deficit Amid Economic Challenges

Tajik Minister of Economic Development and Trade Zavqi Zavqizoda has said that Tajikistan’s economy showed strong growth in the first half of 2025, with GDP reaching 70.8 billion somoni ($7.572 billion), inflation holding steady at 1.8 per cent, and trade turnover surpassing 33 billion somoni ($3.529 billion).

Zavqizoda highlighted that GDP for January to June 2021-2025 nearly tripled compared to the same period in 2016-2020, with an average annual growth rate of 8.1-1.9 percentage points higher than the previous five-year period, The Caspian Post reports per Tajik media.

Key drivers of economic growth included a 24 per cent rise in industrial production, 14.6 per cent growth in fixed asset investments, and increases in paid services (12.8 per cent), agriculture (9.7 per cent), freight transportation (9.3 per cent), trade turnover (9 per cent), and passenger transportation (5.8 per cent).

Inflation remained low at 1.8 per cent, a slight decrease from the previous year, primarily influenced by rising food prices (2.9 per cent) and service tariffs (3.4 per cent).

Domestic trade turnover grew by 9 per cent year-on-year to over 33.31 billion somoni ($3.562 billion), with retail trade and vehicle repair services making up 8.1 per cent of the total. Overall trade turnover rose 7.2 per cent to exceed $4.731 billion.

Paid services totaled 13.5 billion somoni ($1.444 billion), up 2.8 per cent from the same period last year, with more than 70 per cent of these services provided directly to consumers.

Exports fell by 4.3 per cent to just over $955 million, largely due to a $297 million decline in precious metals shipments, while imports increased 10.5 per cent to $3.775 billion.

Tajikistan’s main exports in the first half of 2025 included semi-precious metals (30 per cent), minerals (26.5 per cent), primary aluminum and related products (13.8 per cent), cotton fiber (5.7 per cent), electricity (5.7 per cent), and agricultural goods (3.4 per cent).

Major imports consisted of vehicles (13 per cent), petroleum products (11.7 per cent), raw food materials for processing (9.7 per cent), food products (8.3 per cent), technological equipment (7.9 per cent), ferrous metals (7 per cent), electrical equipment (6.3 per cent), lumber and wood products (4.3 per cent), liquefied gas (3.2 per cent), and polymer products (3.1 per cent).

Zavqizoda underscored Russia’s continuing role as a key trade partner, noting bilateral trade surged by 111 per cent to reach $1.71 billion during the first six months of 2025.