The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 7.8% in 2026, up from 7.7% in 2025, before growth slows to 6.5% in 2027.

The estimates are included in the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook report, titled Resilience Under Pressure, Urgent Choices, The Caspian Post reports, citing UzDaily.

According to the IMF, inflation in Uzbekistan will continue to decline. Average annual consumer price inflation stood at 8.8% in 2025 and is projected to fall to 6.9% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027.

Unemployment is also expected to decrease, from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027.

The outlook for the external sector is less favourable. Uzbekistan’s current account deficit is projected to widen from 3.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 5.1% in 2026, before narrowing to 4.6% in 2027.

Uzbekistan is expected to grow considerably faster than the average for the Caucasus and Central Asia. The IMF forecasts growth of 5.2% for the group in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, following 6.2% in 2025. Average inflation across the group is projected to reach 8% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027.

Among neighbouring countries, only Kyrgyzstan is forecast to record faster economic growth than Uzbekistan in 2026, at 9%.

The report notes that countries across the Caucasus and Central Asia continue to benefit from commodity prices, remittances and ongoing reforms.

The IMF takes a considerably more cautious view of the broader Middle East and Central Asia region, projecting its economy to contract by 0.3% in 2026 before growing by 6.3% in 2027.

Compared with its April forecast, the IMF has lowered its 2026 growth estimate for the region by 2.2 percentage points while raising its 2027 projection by 1.7 percentage points. The fund attributes the revisions to the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for longer than anticipated in the spring.

The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. For emerging market and developing economies, it projects growth of 3.7% and 4.4%, respectively.