Georgia has started to seriously assess the potential consequences of reopening transport communications between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the move is largely viewed as a positive step for regional cooperation, it also presents economic risks for Georgia, which has traditionally been the South Caucasus' main transit hub.
According to Georgian media, Paata Tsagareishvili, Director of the Center for Transport Corridor Studies, speaking at the International Conference “Orbeli Forum 2025: Building Peace and Multilateral Cooperation” in Yerevan, stated that Georgia risks losing up to 20 percent of its transit cargo after the launch of new routes between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye.
Based on his estimates, Georgia could lose roughly 15-20 percent of the Middle Corridor’s total transit flow. Each year, around 18-20 million tons of cargo pass through Georgia, and losing one-fifth of that volume would be a serious blow to the country’s economy.
For now, however, these risks remain hypothetical, since the only major transit route through the South Caucasus remains the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, while transit through Armenia will initially be limited to road transport.
Tsagareishvili believes that establishing railway connectivity could take five to six years, as the Armenian section remains incomplete. Nevertheless, he is confident that new transport routes between Armenia and Azerbaijan will inevitably reduce the cargo flow through Georgia.
Meanwhile, cargo transportation via the Middle Corridor, officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), through Georgia continues to grow. At the 5th Silk Road Forum held recently in Tbilisi, Azerbaijan’s Prime Minister Ali Asadov announced that the volume of transit cargo along the Middle Corridor had increased by about 90 percent over the past three years, demonstrating both its efficiency and growing demand.
The transit time along the TITR has also been significantly reduced - down to just 15 days.
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In 2024, the total cargo transported via the TITR increased by 62 percent to reach 4.5 million tons, with forecasts predicting growth to 5.2 million tons in 2025. By 2027, the corridor’s throughput capacity might reach 10 million tons annually.
Given this rapid growth, Georgia genuinely faces the risk of losing its status as the region’s primary transit hub. Georgian experts believe the solution lies in decisive measures to preserve competitiveness: revising tariff policies, improving infrastructure, and supporting logistics operators. Otherwise, the rapidly developing flow of goods from Central Asian countries might bypass Georgia altogether.
Interestingly, Armenia is also beginning to explore the idea of competing for transit traffic - not yet at the political level, but among its expert community. Analysts in Yerevan argue that attracting Central Asian cargo could be highly profitable, especially as American interests in the region expand. The Middle Corridor is currently considered the most reliable and well-coordinated route that avoids both the traditional northern path through Russia and the unstable Middle East. Within this logic, Georgia and Armenia are becoming direct competitors.
While Azerbaijan remains an indispensable part of any route, the future branching of transit lines understandably makes Georgia uneasy. The Middle Corridor route through Armenia would be shorter, and if Georgia fails to maintain strong competitive advantages, it could lose its transit edge.
Additional challenges could also arise from the Turkish side: at present, due to closed borders, goods destined for Armenia from Türkiye are routed through Georgia. Once the Turkish-Armenian border reopens, that detour will no longer be necessary.
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Unlike analysts, the Georgian government shows no signs of panic. Speaking at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze emphasized that Georgia will continue to expand cooperation aimed at increasing cargo traffic along the Middle Corridor. According to him, the number of containers transported between China and Georgia via this route grew by 71 percent from January to August 2025. Over the past year, cargo volumes on the route were 15 times higher than in 2023.
Currently, Georgia is implementing the Anaklia deep-water port project and continuing to modernize and expand the Georgian section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. The government envisions the country as a key trade and transport link between China and Europe, and for now, it indeed occupies that role.
But this could change if Armenia finally proceeds with the construction of the Meghri road. By then, Georgia must be fully prepared for competition, because the stakes - the dividends of regional transit - are simply too high to ignore.
By Tural Heybatov
