Central Asia Shows Varied Economic Growth Forecasts for 2025

Central Asia is gearing up for a dynamic economic year in 2025, though growth rates will vary widely across the region.

Fresh projections from the IMF, EBRD, and ADB show that while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to surge ahead, Uzbekistan is set for steady gains, and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are forecast to grow at a more moderate pace.

Kyrgyzstan is emerging as the region’s fastest-growing economy. Forecasts range from 8.0 per cent (IMF) to a striking 11.7 per cent (ADB), averaging 9.57 per cent. Strong domestic demand, major infrastructure spending, and steady remittances are fueling the outlook - though analysts note the wide forecast gap reflects risks tied to external funds and investment-heavy growth.

Tajikistan is also holding its momentum. Projections - between 7.5 per cent and 8.1 per cent - show more stability, driven by agriculture, trade, and industry. Remittances and infrastructure are still the backbone of growth, but dependence on external support and global commodity prices could temper performance.

Uzbekistan is set for healthy expansion, with an average forecast of 6.9 per cent. Domestic consumption, strong investment flows, and rising exports are keeping the economy on an upward trajectory. The narrower spread in forecasts suggests greater confidence and less vulnerability to sudden shocks.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are projected to post moderate but steady gains. Kazakhstan is expected to grow around 5.9 per cent, supported by oil output and infrastructure development. Turkmenistan is forecast at around 5.0 per cent, backed by public investment and a growing services sector - though wider forecast variations indicate uncertainty in underlying fundamentals.

The outlook comes as regional leaders continue emphasizing security and stability - key themes highlighted at a recent international conference focused on Central Asia’s long-term resilience.