Several European countries are voicing concern that the ongoing U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran could trigger a mass influx of migrants and put the EU’s newly reformed asylum system to the test.

Europe has faced similar challenges before, notably during the 2015-2016 refugee crisis, when hundreds of thousands of people, primarily from Syria, crossed through Greece, Italy, and Hungary. Following years of negotiation, the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, with updated rules for migrant intake, will come into effect this June 2026, The Caspian Post reports via foreign media.

Nicholas Ioannides, Chair of Cyprus’ Migration Committee, warned that a new crisis “could test the effectiveness of the new rules,” while Johan Forssell, Sweden’s Migration Minister, stressed that the EU cannot afford another migration crisis.

Spain’s Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska expressed confidence that Europe could manage an influx of refugees from the East if necessary.

According to the International Organization for Migration, no major migration surge into Europe has been recorded yet. However, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reports that up to 3.2 million people in Iran have been internally displaced due to the conflict. In 2025, the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) warned that even partial destabilization of Iran could trigger a refugee wave of unprecedented scale.