The Iran War has temporarily disrupted Caucasus-Central Asia connectivity. The United States must reassure the region that it still wishes to engage with its development.

“Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone.” This famous quote from Winston Churchill’s 1913 address to the British Parliament referred to energy security. Yet the principle applies more broadly to all resources, commodities, and transportation links. Diversification of supply sources and ensuring free, open access to markets are fundamental to the functioning of the global economy, The Caspian Post reports via The National Interest.

The war in Iran has drawn global attention to the security of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as to global energy supply. It has contributed to rising prices for oil, fertilizers, and other commodities worldwide.

Amid this crisis, relatively little attention is being paid to the South Caucasus-the region bordering northwestern Iran. Countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are carefully navigating the situation to avoid being drawn into escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Azerbaijan is a significant producer of oil and gas, supplying energy to a wide range of countries, including Türkiye, Israel, and Italy. It is also an important producer of fertilizers for global markets. Together with Georgia, Azerbaijan provides critical transit access for energy, fertilizers, grains, and other commodities from Central Asia. The region’s infrastructure-pipelines, ports, railways, highways, and air corridors-plays a vital role in maintaining critical connectivity amid geopolitical instability in the Middle East, underscoring the importance of alternative supply routes. The war in Iran has further elevated the strategic relevance of the Central Asia-South Caucasus-Black Sea-Mediterranean corridor for global economic stability.

In recent months, the Trump administration has invested considerable political capital in promoting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries long engaged in conflict. During a meeting hosted by President Donald Trump at the White House on August 8, 2025, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to develop the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The initiative aims to restore and expand rail connectivity between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, with the route running along Iran’s northern border.

The broader vision is for TRIPP to become part of a larger connectivity network linking Türkiye and Azerbaijan via Armenia, and extending across the Caspian Sea to resource-rich Central Asia. Given its strategic importance for US access to Central Asia, Washington had already been considering providing security support for the Armenian segment of TRIPP even before the war in Iran.

On January 13, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced the TRIPP Implementation Framework following their meeting in Washington. In February, US Vice President JD Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan to advance US regional interests and support infrastructure development. Earlier, after meeting leaders of five Central Asian states in October 2025, President Trump invited the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to the 2026 G20 Summit in Miami, signaling increased US engagement in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

At present, TRIPP focuses on restoring and expanding rail links between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Nakhchivan, including a new 43-kilometer (27-mile) segment across Armenia connecting Baku to Nakhchivan and onward to Türkiye’s Dilucu-Kars line.

Energy integration is also progressing. Armenia has announced plans to synchronize its electricity system with Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijan is constructing a power line to Nakhchivan, potentially forming part of a broader Azerbaijan- Türkiye-Europe electricity corridor. Offshore wind development in the Caspian Sea could further enhance electricity export capacity. If Armenia advances nuclear energy development, electricity exports to Türkiye and Georgia could expand significantly.

These initiatives elevate Türkiye’s role as a strategic transit hub between Asia and Europe. Complementing rail development is Türkiye’s new Iyidere Logistics Port near Rize, designed as a multimodal hub with significant annual capacity and integration with regional transport infrastructure. Turkish officials have described it as a future strategic trade node linking the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Europe.

However, the prolonged war in Iran may complicate the near-term implementation of TRIPP. Iran had already expressed opposition to the project prior to the conflict, viewing it as a geopolitical initiative that could weaken its influence in the South Caucasus. But Tehran is mostly wary of Azerbaijan’s close ties with Türkiye and Israel.

Much of the proposed rail route runs along the Iranian border. In the early days of the war, Iranian drones struck an airport in Nakhchivan. In response, Azerbaijan restricted parts of its airspace and limited cargo traffic across its border with Iran. These developments may have broader implications: with Iranian and Russian airspace largely closed, Azerbaijan and Georgia now form a narrow but critical air corridor for east-west traffic between Europe and Asia.

The crisis in the Middle East, combined with the growing importance of the South Caucasus and Central Asia for global commodity flows, underscores the need for a more comprehensive strategic approach to the region. To ensure success, Washington should consider integrating TRIPP with the C5+1 platform and expanding its scope to include complementary infrastructure projects across the Black Sea-Caspian corridor, covering energy, minerals, fertilizers, transportation, data infrastructure, and electricity transmission.

This expanded vision could include projects such as the Georgia-Romania Black Sea Submarine Cable, supported by Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, and Hungary. The project would transmit electricity generated by Azerbaijani offshore wind, Georgian hydropower, and potentially Armenian nuclear energy directly to European markets, catalyzing investment and strengthening regional integration into Europe’s energy system.

Another priority is the modernization of Georgia’s railway and port infrastructure. Without a deep-sea port, Georgia relies on feeder services from Poti and Batumi to larger hubs, increasing costs. While the expansion of Poti New Sea Port, funded by the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), improves capacity, the development of Anaklia remains essential to maintaining Georgia’s competitiveness, particularly as Türkiye expands its Black Sea port infrastructure.

The South Caucasus is entering a new phase of infrastructure-driven geopolitics. As the conflict in Iran reshapes regional dynamics, the region’s importance continues to grow. A comprehensive Black Sea-Caspian transit framework could solidify the South Caucasus as a key corridor linking Central Asia and Europe while rebalancing geopolitical influence.

The United States can help shape the architecture of the transregional corridor. TRIPP, if approached with sufficient scope and commitment, offers an opportunity to build a strategic corridor serving the interests of the United States and its core allies.

By Mamuka Tsereteli