Kazakhstan's Oil Exports Plunge via Caspian Pipeline

Kazakhstan’s oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal fell sharply in January 2026, with CPC Blend shipments dropping to 800-900,000 barrels per day-a 45 per cent decline from mid-December forecasts.

Traders canceled at least 21 of 45 scheduled shipments, disrupting the market and pushing prices higher, The Caspian Post reports via foreign media.

One CPC Blend cargo recently traded at a $1.20 per barrel premium over Dated Brent, compared to the expected $0.60-0.80 range.

The decline comes amid multiple challenges: drone attacks disabled one offshore loading unit, another is undergoing planned repairs, and storms in the Black Sea regularly halt operations. As a result, the terminal is operating intermittently.

Sources say CPC storage tanks are full, forcing the pipeline system to temporarily stop receiving oil from producers. To maintain normal export volumes, Kazakhstan needs at least two fully functional loading units, with a third held in reserve.

The CPC remains a key route for Kazakhstan’s oil, which produces around 1.8 million barrels per day, though alternative routes can handle only about half that volume. Prolonged terminal disruptions risk forced production cuts. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has not commented on the situation.