IMF Forecasts Kyrgyzstan's GDP Growth to Slow in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a slowdown in Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth, estimating the country's GDP growth rate will decline to 6.8 percent in 2025.

The IMF notes that, despite global instability, the country’s economy is showing good results, The Caspian Post reports, citing Kyrgyz media.

It is noted that in 2022-2024, GDP growth was 9 percent, inflation returned to target indicators, and public debt decreased to 36.6 percent of GDP.

This year, a gradual slowdown in growth rates to 6.8 percent is expected, and in the medium term - to 5.25 percent per year. The IMF cited the normalization of re-export trade and a decline in domestic demand as the reasons. At the same time, according to the forecast, inflation will remain stable provided that a prudent monetary policy is maintained.

Kyrgyzstan is recommended to:

• Restore political and financial reserves for protection against external shocks;
• Increase budget sustainability by reducing tax breaks and subsidies;
• Maintain independence of monetary policy;
• Strengthen structural reforms, including anti-corruption measures, privatization and development of a competitive environment;
• Strengthen the rule of law and protection of property rights;
• Invest in healthcare, education, sustainable energy and infrastructure.

The IMF believes that further tightening of sanctions against Russia could weaken the growth rate of the Kyrgyz Republic due to a decrease in the volume of remittances and trade. At the same time, a peaceful settlement could change the external environment, reducing the inflow of trade and capital.