The policies of U.S. President Donald Trump stand in stark contrast to those of his predecessor. Judging by the initial statements of the newly elected American leader-where he abruptly claimed ownership of Greenland from Denmark, Canada from the British Crown, and even threatened to reclaim the Panama Canal-it appears that his administration's priority will be transforming America into a fortress capable of withstanding external threats. This suggests that the U.S. intends to focus on internal issues within the American continent, delegating responsibility for other regions to different players. While speculative, such assumptions carry a certain logic in the current geopolitical climate.
Central Asia has historically never been a priority in U.S. foreign policy. The region has primarily drawn the attention of American administrations in the context of countering China's influence. Given China's significant rise over the past four years, it can be assumed that Central Asian countries may gain prominence on President Trump’s list of strategic priorities.
Kazakhstan is likely to attract particular attention as the most developed country in the region, with abundant resources and access to the Caspian Sea. Its growing economic potential and role as a transit hub for trade between the EU and China could facilitate the creation of a new logistics map of Eurasia, making it a valuable partner for American businesses. Given these factors, Washington will likely support plans to transport oil and gas through the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan.
A key U.S. objective in Kazakhstan could be to influence the country’s foreign policy, especially regarding its participation in integration projects with Russia and China. Aware of Kazakhstan's strategic importance to Russia, the U.S. is likely to pursue a strategy of economic engagement and creative cooperation without direct interference in Kazakhstan’s internal or foreign policies. This approach could also extend to other countries in the region under the Trump administration.
Economic measures might include expanding trade routes to enhance the efficiency of key maritime and railway logistics corridors, improving infrastructure for trans-Caspian trade routes, and fostering private sector growth. However, despite the pragmatic policies the Trump administration might pursue in the region, Washington is expected to face challenges. Chief among these are limited U.S. investments compared to China’s massive capital inflows, which could undermine America's competitive position. Additionally, the vast "distance" between the U.S. and Central Asia-geographically, politically, and culturally-poses significant challenges.
The growing agency of Central Asian countries, rooted in their geographic location, national traditions, and roles in the global division of labor, adds complexity to their multifaceted foreign policies. Competition between Russia, China, and the U.S. for the region’s resources underpins these states' multivector strategies, allowing them to address economic, domestic, and security objectives.
Post-Soviet countries remain unable to make definitive geopolitical choices, as they lack the military power and economic resources to pursue fully independent policies. None wish to follow the paths of Georgia or Ukraine. As a result, these nations are attempting to navigate among competing blocs and powers to varying degrees.
In 2023, trade between China and Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) reached $89 billion, followed by the EU at $53.9 billion, Russia at $44 billion, and Turkey at nearly $13 billion. Central Asia, long considered within Russia’s sphere of influence, is now visibly leaning towards China. Meanwhile, U.S. trade with Central Asia in 2022 totaled only $4.4 billion, highlighting Washington’s underestimation of the region's role in the global economy and resource balance.
The Trump administration may take a radically different approach, potentially beginning with resolving the Ukraine conflict through negotiations with Russia and enlisting its support against China and Iran. Reducing tensions between the U.S. and Russia could enable Central Asian countries to pursue a more balanced policy without being forced to align with opposing sides.
