The last few days have served as a useful re-cap of the current reality in the peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Various statements by each country’s Foreign Affairs Ministries suggest that the overall outlook on signing a peace treaty is perhaps more optimistic than ever before. However, as stated by President Ilham Aliyev during an international conference in Baku on 13th March 2025, caution, common sense and justice must prevail in what is a crucial moment for Azerbaijan’s and the broader region’s security.
President Aliyev made it clear that a lot more needs to be achieved to ensure that a future peace treaty will bring lasting peace. Azerbaijan’s leader referenced multiple instances of when Armenia, both previously and through its current leadership, has presented itself as an unreliable and hostile neighbour to Azerbaijan. Citing the country’s actions before the Second Karabakh War, when in addition to occupying sovereign Azerbaijani territory the country’s leadership engaged in provocative actions that steered up animosity between the two nations, the President described in detail the horrific suffering inflicted on peaceful civilians throughout the war itself. Moreover, the on-going legal process in Baku against arrested leaders of the now dismantled separatist regime has revealed vital details that suggest it was directly in Yerevan where military orders were being given out. This fact, understandably, is not something that can simply be neglected and overlooked. If Azerbaijan is to finalize peace with Armenia, it must first guarantee that the other side is equally peace-seeking and well-intentioned in preventing the return of conflict in the future. One of the ways to ensure this is relevant accountability for all individuals responsible for, first, illegally occupying sovereign territory and second, targeting civilians residing in non-conflict zones.
Source: TRENDS Research & Advisory
Azerbaijan’s current position combines optimism and a desire to proceed for the sake of mutual prosperity with a profound concern about the intentions of the other side. This is exactly the position that was highlighted by President Ilham Aliyev and also in the official statement of the Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry. The country recognizes and confirms the conclusion of negotiations on the draft peace agreement and establishment of interstate relations but, crucially, now calls for practicable steps to be implemented. Among these is the vital matter of the Armenian constitution, which continues to contain territorial claims against Azerbaijan. The preamble of the constitution mentions a decision on the “reunification of Armenia SSR and Nagorno Karabakh”, something that was emphasized further by a decision of the Armenian Parliament to prohibit reference to the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic” as a part of Azerbaijan. To date, the plans of the current Armenian government add even more ambiguity to an already lingering situation. In May 2024, Prime Minister Pashinyan ordered a new draft of the constitution to be prepared, designating a deadline of January 2027. If this really turns out to be the case, it is evident that the issue is not being treated with the necessary urgency and persistence, suggesting that official peace in the short-term will remain unattainable.
In addition to key legal issues, a future peace treaty must be a matter exclusive to the two countries involved. Azerbaijan has achieved considerable independence in its foreign policy, fostering its existing alliances and rejecting all attempts to baselessly undermine its reputation. Armenia’s foreign policy vision is less clear, with the country alternating between deepening ties with the West but simultaneously boosting economic ties with Russia and Iran. Armenia’s activities on the international arena are a dangerous de-stabilizer of the peace track, with countries like France, the United States under the former Biden administration and India all contributing to the re-arming of the country. President Aliyev clearly reflected on these tendencies in his latest speech, arguing that foreign intervention (whether it’s through groupings or individual states) is no longer logical. In fact, given that revanchist sentiments undoubtedly remain, foreign bolstering might accelerate this process and take advantage of the fragility of the peace process.
Source: Swarajya
In a nutshell, Armenia’s statements, although positive, are insufficient when it comes to proving the country’s unwavering commitment to peace with Azerbaijan. There is more than enough evidence to suggest that the country has not abandoned a desire to prolong its confrontation with Azerbaijan - both from a legal-constitutional perspective but also from a political-military one. Azerbaijan’s requirements are, in simple terms, yet to be fulfilled. One would be wrong to question the power and influence of productive diplomacy. However, diplomacy is only fruitful if accompanied by mutual trust, honesty in acknowledging previous wrongdoings and enough political sensitivity to understand the position of the other side. Armenia’s current position fails to meet these requirements, even if the country has used diplomatic rhetoric to present itself as the principal side aspiring for peace.
Real peace is comprehensive, not selective. For comprehensive and lasting peace, a list of conditions should be provided, primarily the removal of territorial claims against Azerbaijan from the constitution of Armenia, the opening of transport links as per the trilateral agreement signed in November 2020, the preparing of the Armenian population for peace, and the demilitarization of the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border. The sides need a peace treaty that will be built upon strong foundations and bring peace, reconciliation, and prosperity to the people of the two countries.
