The Uzbek government has assessed the potential economic impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East, warning that geopolitical instability and global market volatility remain key risks to the country's economic outlook.

Uzbekistan's 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy identifies geopolitical conflicts, commodity market volatility, and persistent global inflation as the main threats to macroeconomic stability, The Caspian Post reports via UzDaily.

The strategy notes that Uzbekistan's direct trade exposure to Middle Eastern countries remains relatively limited. In 2025, total trade with Iran, Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia reached $2.1 billion, accounting for 2.6% of the country's total foreign trade turnover. Exports totaled $933 million, while imports stood at $1.2 billion.

Despite the modest trade share, the government cautioned that disruptions to global supply chains and rising international prices for oil, mineral fertilizers, and food could negatively affect Uzbekistan's economy. Higher import costs, logistical challenges, and slower global economic growth are cited as the main channels through which regional instability could impact the country.