Caspian Sea: The New Hub of Offshore Energy for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

Image: https://depositphotos.com/. 

By Anar Musayev

Offshore wind energy is emerging as a crucial area in the global transition to renewable sources in many countries worldwide. Nations with substantial natural resources and favorable conditions for installing wind farms are particularly interested in this field. Azerbaijan, with its extensive coastline along the Caspian Sea, is actively developing its wind energy sector and aspires to transform this region into a "green" energy hub. Meanwhile, neighboring Kazakhstan is also making significant strides, utilizing unique wind corridors across its territory. These examples demonstrate how natural resource potential and support from international partners can facilitate the creation of new energy capacities in the region, promoting sustainable development and laying the groundwork for clean energy exports.

In 2022, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) published a ranking of countries with the greatest potential for offshore wind energy development, listing Australia, Sri Lanka, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan among the leaders. According to the report, offshore wind energy in these countries could become a competitive and promising source of clean energy.

Azerbaijan, for its part, introduced a "Wind Energy Development Roadmap" at the Baku Energy Forum. This document outlines plans to install offshore wind power plants in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, targeting a capacity of 7.2 GW by 2040. Developed with the support of the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the project aims to achieve sustainable development and decarbonization. By this target year, it is expected that these plants will meet up to 37% of the country's electricity demand. The roadmap also includes an alternative scenario, projecting an output of 1.5 GW, covering around 7% of energy consumption.

The roadmap contains a range of recommendations, including interim goals for 2030 and 2036, a pilot project of 200 MW, and the subsequent introduction of larger installations. The plan also addresses infrastructure modernization, the adoption of best global practices, and the development of competencies within government bodies and industry professionals to ensure successful project implementation.

According to a preliminary analysis, the technical potential for offshore wind energy in Azerbaijan stands at approximately 157 GW, significantly surpassing the current total installed capacity in the country, which is 8 GW. This suggests that with adequate investment, Azerbaijan could become a leading producer of "green" electricity.

The development of Azerbaijan's offshore wind map involved British company BVG Associates, which specializes in renewable energy. Experts highlight that the Caspian Sea holds high potential for offshore wind farms, allowing Azerbaijan to eventually become an exporter of electricity and green hydrogen. This was also noted by The Telegraph, which underscored that Azerbaijan’s resources are ample enough to support clean energy exports.

Türkiye is also actively advancing its offshore wind energy, with plans for projects totaling 1.2 GW in capacity. By 2030, Türkiye intends to increase its wind power capacity to 20 GW. Currently, the installed capacity of the country's wind facilities reaches 11 GW, and its offshore wind potential is estimated at 70 GW.

One of the advantages of offshore wind farms is the high utilization factor due to strong winds; however, building such facilities entails substantial costs, including for expensive transmission infrastructure. Despite these challenges, European countries are striving to turn the North Sea into a single "green power station." According to the plan, wind farm capacity in the region is projected to reach 76 GW by 2030, 138 GW by 2040, and 260 GW by 2050.

In the United States, offshore wind energy is also seen as a promising field, with plans to generate 15 GW from floating offshore installations by 2030. Overall, the global offshore wind market has been growing at an annual rate of 21%, reaching a capacity of 64.3 GW by 2021. While the UK had led the market, China recently surpassed it, reaching a capacity of 30 GW.

International experts forecast that by 2032, the total capacity of offshore installations worldwide will reach 447 GW. With its considerable potential in the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan could capture a significant share of this market, although it would require substantial investments and supporting infrastructure. Large-scale production capacities are planned for the Caspian, aiming at energy exports to Europe. Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy, Parviz Shahbazov, emphasized this goal during a meeting with U.S. representatives at COP28 in Dubai.

Azerbaijan’s plans to build offshore wind farms in the Caspian have been under development since 2016. According to the project, one station will be located in the area from Pirallahi Island to Chilov Island. Companies from China, Qatar, the UAE, and Germany have shown interest in this project.

In 2023, at a ministerial meeting in Baku under the framework of the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council and Green Energy, Azerbaijan and Saudi company ACWA Power signed agreements to develop projects with capacities of up to 1.5 GW. In 2024, a framework agreement was signed for a 200 MW onshore wind facility. ACWA Power is expected to invest around $5 billion. At the Baku Energy Forum, a company representative highlighted that Azerbaijan is an attractive investment destination due to its political stability and strategic geographical location.

In addition to Azerbaijan’s ambitious plans in offshore wind energy, Kazakhstan’s experience is noteworthy. Favorable climatic conditions and the presence of wind corridors make Kazakhstan well-suited for wind energy development. With wind speeds exceeding 5 m/s across various regions, including the Caspian region, central and northern Kazakhstan, as well as the southern and southeastern areas, Kazakhstan has substantial potential for installing wind turbines.

According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, the country's wind energy potential is around 920 billion kWh annually. The "Kazakhstan – Wind Energy Market Development Initiative" project revealed that an average wind speed of 5-6 m/s, suitable for wind farms, exists in different parts of the country. Furthermore, a wind atlas was developed under the project, identifying zones with high wind speeds where electricity generation could range from 0.929 to 1.82 billion kWh annually.

In this way, Azerbaijan is earnestly pursuing its "green" transition plans, with offshore wind energy development playing a crucial role in these efforts. Although implementing such projects requires significant investments, the country expects to recoup them in the coming years and strengthen its position as a "green" energy exporter. Kazakhstan is also actively developing its wind energy sector, leveraging its natural conditions to achieve sustainable energy development.