OPEC on Thursday kept its projections for solid global oil demand growth over the next four years and slightly raised its longer-term outlook, arguing that policy developments around the world are becoming increasingly supportive of oil consumption and that there is no indication demand is nearing a peak.

The 11-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose member states rely heavily on oil revenues to fund government budgets, continues to hold a more optimistic view on future demand than other major industry bodies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), The Caspian Post reports, citing Reuters.

According to OPEC’s 2026 World Oil Outlook, global oil demand is expected to increase from 105.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to 113.3 million bpd by 2030. The forecast for both 2025 and 2030 remains largely unchanged from last year’s report.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sharp contraction in oil consumption in 2020, OPEC has consistently revised its long-term demand forecasts upward.

The latest report comes at a particularly challenging time for the organization. In 2026, OPEC has faced unprecedented difficulties as the war involving Iran forced Gulf oil exporters to implement substantial export reductions. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates, which had been a member of OPEC for nearly six decades, surprised the market and fellow members by withdrawing from the group.

OPEC said that shifts in government policies across the United States, Europe and other regions, combined with sustained economic and population growth in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, will continue to support rising oil demand. This trend is expected to persist despite what the organization described as “impressive progress” by China in expanding renewable energy adoption.

“The increased focus on energy security and energy affordability has shifted the energy policy landscape across the globe,” OPEC said in the report.

According to the organization, this changing policy environment is evident in a number of adjustments and reversals that are likely to support oil consumption over both the medium and long term.

As examples, OPEC pointed to the slower-than-anticipated adoption of electric vehicles in Europe, as well as policy changes introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration that affect support measures for renewable energy, electric vehicles and fuel-efficiency standards.

Looking further ahead, OPEC now expects global oil demand to reach 124 million bpd by 2050, slightly above the 122.9 million bpd projected in last year’s outlook. The organization reiterated its long-held position that there is no sign of peak oil demand emerging in the foreseeable future.

The outlook differs sharply from that of the IEA. In November, the agency projected that global oil demand would reach 113 million bpd by the middle of the century. Although the IEA’s 2050 estimate remains significantly below OPEC’s forecast, the agency had previously anticipated that demand would peak as early as 2029.

Meanwhile, ship-tracking data indicate that the United States has become the world’s largest oil exporter in 2026. The development reflects strong growth in U.S. production driven by the shale oil boom, along with disruptions to exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia caused by wars and international sanctions.

Despite this, OPEC said U.S. tight oil production - another term for shale oil output - likely reached its peak in 2025 at slightly above 9 million bpd. The organization forecasts only modest growth in total U.S. liquids supply of around 400,000 bpd through 2030, followed by a prolonged production plateau.

The report also projects that oil production from countries outside OPEC+, the broader alliance that includes OPEC members along with Russia and other partner nations, will reach its peak in the early 2030s.

OPEC has continued to emphasize the need for significant investment in the oil industry. The organization estimates that cumulative investment requirements through 2050 will total $17.7 trillion, slightly lower than the $18.2 trillion estimate presented in last year’s report.