Energy prices are projected to surge by 24% in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, if the most severe disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East come to an end in May, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the global development bank warned that commodity prices could climb even higher if hostilities in the region intensify and supply disruptions persist longer than anticipated, The Caspian Post reports, citing Reuters.

The bank stated that its baseline scenario assumes shipping volumes through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway will gradually recover to near pre-war levels by October, but emphasized that the risks are “markedly tilted” toward higher prices.

Under this baseline, overall commodity prices are expected to rise by 16% in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer costs as well as record-high prices for several key metals.

Oil prices continued to increase on Tuesday as efforts to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, restricting access to energy supplies, fertilizers, and other commodities from the key Middle Eastern producing region for global buyers.

According to the World Bank, attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping in the strait - which before the war accounted for 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade - have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record.

The bank noted that Brent crude oil prices in mid-April were more than 50% higher than at the beginning of the year. It forecasts Brent to average $86 per barrel in 2026, a sharp increase from $69 per barrel in 2025.

However, prices could average as high as $115 per barrel this year if critical oil and gas facilities sustain further damage and export volumes recover slowly.

Brent crude futures for June were trading at around $109 per barrel on Tuesday, after reaching their highest closing level since April 7 on Monday.

“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally higher inflation, which will drive up interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” said World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill. He added that the shock would disproportionately affect the poorest countries, worsening conditions for heavily indebted developing economies.

Fertilizer prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, fueled by a 60% increase in the price of urea, the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer, which is produced by converting natural gas into ammonia and carbon dioxide.

The rise in fertilizer prices is expected to intensify pressure on food supplies, reduce farmers’ incomes, and threaten future crop yields. The World Food Programme estimates that an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity this year if the war continues for an extended period.

The World Bank also said inflation in developing economies is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026 under the baseline scenario, up from 4.7% last year and one percentage point higher than pre-war forecasts. If the conflict is prolonged, inflation could reach as high as 5.8%.

Economic growth is also expected to suffer significantly. Developing economies are now projected to expand by just 3.6% in 2026, down from a pre-war forecast of 4%.