Kazakhstan may see a decline in oil production in 2026, according to analysts at Halyk Research, as the country’s economic growth shows signs of slowing.

Experts link the expected drop in oil output to disruptions in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a key export route for Kazakh crude. However, analysts note that higher global oil prices - partly driven by tensions involving Iran - could help offset the impact, The Caspian Post reports via Kazakh media.

At the same time, broader economic pressures are building. Halyk Research points to rising tax rates, a high base interest rate, and persistent inflation - especially increases in utility and fuel tariffs - as factors likely to weigh on growth in 2026.

Recent data shows a noticeable slowdown across most sectors. GDP growth has dropped to 3% year-on-year, while the short-term economic indicator (KEI) fell to 2.5%.

Key industries are losing momentum:

Trade growth slowed from 6.3% to 4.8%

Manufacturing edged down from 8.8% to 8.5%

Construction declined from 16.9% to 14.8%

Transport saw a sharp drop from 21.3% to 12.8%

The slowdown is largely tied to reduced output in the mining sector, particularly oil and gas, which has a ripple effect on related industries.

Agriculture remains a rare bright spot, maintaining steady growth of 3.4%.

Overall, analysts warn that while external factors like oil prices may provide temporary relief, structural challenges could continue to pressure Kazakhstan’s economic performance in the coming year.