Analysts at Teniz Capital have assessed the economic impact of the latest Middle East conflict on Kazakhstan, highlighting the country’s oil sector as a potential beneficiary.

The analysts emphasize the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of global oil shipments pass. While Iran had announced a closure of the strait, the decision was later reversed - though maritime risks remain, The Caspian Post reports via Kazakh media.

Oil Prices and Supply Opportunities

If the conflict prolongs, Brent crude prices could rise to $90 per barrel. In the initial days of escalation, prices surged above $82 before stabilizing around $78-$79. Experts note that structural supply risks are emerging, positioning Kazakhstan as an alternative oil supplier.

China is expected to drive the highest demand, benefiting major domestic players like KazMunayGas (KMG) and KazTransOil (KTO). KMG could capitalize on rising prices and potential OPEC+ production increases, while KTO may see higher transit volumes and phased tariff hikes. Plans are also under discussion to route up to 12.5 million tons of Russian oil annually through Kazakhstan.

Market Reaction

Following these developments, KMG shares rose 10%, and KTO shares gained 5.5%. Economist Almas Chukin added that a potential regime change in Iran and the lifting of sanctions could create additional economic opportunities for Kazakhstan.