On February 18, an event took place in Riyadh that fundamentally altered the global order established after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. For the first time in over thirty years, the United States acknowledged Russia as an equal partner, whose interests the collective West is now forced to take into account.
A country that had been gradually gaining strength has proven its ability to withstand military pressure from NATO and its satellite states that follow the alliance’s lead. While the anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to formalize the shifts in the global balance of power, it is already evident that the old world order will not be restored. Quite the opposite- the European Union and several other actors will have to adapt to the new distribution of forces, The Caspian Post reports.
Riyadh meeting/ Evelyn Hockstein/Pool Photo via AP
Moreover, we are witnessing the dismantling and restructuring of global institutions such as the UN and WHO. What will replace them remains uncertain, but the world is changing, and adapting to this transformation is essential. Three years of war in Ukraine, sanctions, and isolation have not only failed to weaken the Russian economy but have also provided a powerful boost to the growth of its military-industrial complex and production in general. There were concerns that Moscow would lose its influence in the post-Soviet space, particularly in Central Asia, where China has been making inroads. However, the reality has unfolded differently.
The five landlocked Central Asian nations-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan-have no interest in seeing one superpower completely displace another and establish its own hegemony. Thus, they seek to diversify their external relations. For all of them, both Russia and China are important partners, albeit for different reasons. One key factor is Moscow’s role in maintaining political stability in the region. It was, after all, the Russian army, under the banner of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), that helped Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stay in power during the 2022 unrest.
Photo credit: theasiatoday.org
Since 2008, China has surpassed Russia in total trade turnover with Central Asian countries, especially through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, it is unclear whether this initiative will continue to expand. In this context, Russia is becoming a necessary counterbalance to China for the new U.S. administration. The recent example of Panama being forced to cancel an agreement with Beijing to include the Panama Canal in the BRI underscores this shifting dynamic.
China’s trade turnover with the five Central Asian countries exceeded $70 billion in 2022, compared to Russia’s $42 billion. Before the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, it seemed that Russia’s economic presence in Central Asia would decline. However, in the first months after the war began, the region faced significant economic challenges: inflation soared, national currencies depreciated, and the cost of imported goods surged. These issues stemmed from the region's economic dependence on Russia and the trade routes that pass through its territory. For example, more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports flow through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which runs through Russian territory.
Source: Eurasianet
Russia, in turn, is also dependent on Central Asia. The Soviet economy was built as a unified economic complex, and even today, the Central Asian republics serve as an inexhaustible labor reservoir for Russian industry and agriculture. Any economic upheaval in Russia immediately affects stability in Central Asia. For example, in 2022, following sanctions against Moscow, inflation in Kazakhstan jumped to 19.8%, in Kyrgyzstan to 16.7%, and in Uzbekistan to 13.8%.
Russia's largest trade turnover in the region is with Kazakhstan, which increased by 10% in 2022, reaching $26 billion. Currently, 84 large joint projects worth $23 billion are either being developed or implemented. Trade with Tajikistan reached nearly $1.7 billion in 2022, marking a 23.7% increase from the previous year, while trade with Uzbekistan grew by 23% to $9.3 billion.
In March 2022, a chemical-industrial technopark opened in the Tashkent region, with participants from both Russia and Uzbekistan. More than 20 joint projects worth $4 billion are also in progress. Russia and Kyrgyzstan plan to implement major hydropower projects. Meanwhile, trade turnover between Russia and Turkmenistan reached approximately $1 billion in 2023, with both countries aiming to strengthen cooperation in the oil and gas sector and jointly develop new fields.
Chirchik chemical-industrial techno-park/Photo credit: uzdaily.uz
Russia actively supports Central Asian countries in aligning their approaches within the regional "C5" format, as well as in the CSTO, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). A crucial factor in maintaining ties between the former Soviet republics is the Russian language. During the Soviet era, proficiency in Russian provided access to the best universities in the unified state. Even today, Russian remains a key means of communication across Eurasia. It holds official status in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and in Tajikistan, it is recognized as the language of interethnic communication.
In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, Russian does not have official status, largely due to national identity-building processes in the post-Soviet space. Each country formulates its language policy based on historical considerations and future strategic goals, which is entirely normal. However, global examples show that a sovereign state can successfully develop within a multilingual environment. For instance, Switzerland has three official languages, the U.S. has no official language, and India recognizes 22 languages-none of which hinder their prosperity and development.
Notably, Russian is the second most widely used language on the internet. It is the medium for vast amounts of humanitarian, scientific, technical, and literary content. In terms of translation, Russian remains one of the most commonly used languages in the world. According to sociological estimates, up to half a billion people across all continents have some proficiency in Russian. Efforts to push the language out of the public sphere could have unpredictable consequences. It is worth recalling that one of the triggers of the Ukraine conflict was precisely the issue of the Russian language’s use in the country’s eastern regions.
Getty images
For the economies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, Russia is of particular importance due to the large number of their citizens working in Russia. Remittances sent by Tajik and Kyrgyz labor migrants contribute significantly to their home countries' GDPs.
As for Kazakhstan, which shares a long border with Russia and has a sizable Russian-speaking minority, policies aimed at diminishing the role of the Russian language could be interpreted as a violation of fundamental human rights. The potential consequences of such an approach are clear. The West will not intervene-especially during this highly complex period of global geopolitical realignment. The European Union is focused on its own survival, while the United States remains primarily concerned with maintaining its status as the world’s leading economy.
