S&P: Tajikistan Faces Risks as Global Gold Prices Set to Drop

Analysts at Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings predict a sharp decline in global precious metal prices over the next two years, warning that Tajikistan’s gold-dependent economy could be hit hard.

In its recent sovereign rating report for Tajikistan, S&P forecasts that gold prices will drop from $2,900 per ounce in 2025 to $2,500 in 2026, and further down to $2,100 in 2027, The Caspian Post reports via Tajik media.

The Tajik gold supplies could face disruption due to uncertainties surrounding potential US tariffs on Switzerland, where most of Tajikistan’s gold is refined.

Despite these risks, analysts highlight that Tajikistan’s external economic position has so far improved, supported by strong remittance inflows and previously favorable gold prices. The National Bank of Tajikistan’s gold monetization program helped raise the country’s international reserves to a record $4.6 billion (30 per cent of GDP) as of March 2025-enough to cover 7.4 months of imports. Proceeds from gold sales, carried out through the Ministry of Finance, have also been used to service the nation’s external debt.

Earlier this month, National Bank Chairman Firdavs Tolibzoda told reporters that monetary gold makes up 20 per cent of Tajikistan’s international reserves. He explained that the volume of gold in reserves has been increasing through domestic purchases and subsequent conversion into monetary gold abroad by “reputable international companies.”

Monetary gold refers to refined physical gold in the form of coins, bars, or plates with a purity level between 995 and 1000, in line with the international Good Delivery standard.

According to Tajikistan’s Statistics Agency, in 2024 the country exported precious metals worth around $350 million, accounting for 17.8 per cent of total exports. A year earlier, exports exceeded $1.1 billion, making up nearly half (46.6 per cent) of Tajikistan’s total export volume.