Tajikistan has made impressive strides in reducing poverty over the past decade, yet the World Bank (WB) cautions that the country’s economy remains vulnerable due to heavy reliance on migration and remittances.
To ensure long-term sustainable development, the WB stresses the need for Tajikistan to prioritize domestic job creation, tackle social and regional inequalities, and improve its education system, The Caspian Post informs via Tajik media.
According to the Tajikistan Poverty and Equity Assessment released by the WB on September 22, the national poverty rate dropped dramatically from 56 per cent in 2010 to roughly 20 per cent in 2024. During the same period, the country’s middle class expanded more than fourfold, growing from 8 per cent to 33 per cent of the population.
Moving from Migration Dependence to Domestic Economic Growth
The WB calls on Tajikistan to reduce its economic dependence on migration and remittance inflows, which currently account for over 30 per cent of GDP, and to focus instead on sustainable job creation at home. The report advocates for transforming agriculture by adopting climate-resilient technologies, expanding labor-intensive sectors such as agro-processing, services, and small businesses, and increasing access to education and vocational training-particularly in rural areas. Strengthening social safety nets to protect vulnerable populations is also highlighted as a key priority.
“We commend Tajikistan’s progress in poverty reduction, but sustaining and building on these gains requires a strategic shift,” said Winnie Wei Wang, Acting Country Manager of the World Bank Group in Tajikistan. “To achieve a more inclusive and resilient economy, Tajikistan must transition from a migration-based growth model toward one centered on domestic job creation, reduced regional inequality, and workforce development.”
Employment Gaps and Gender Disparities
Despite these positive economic trends, job creation remains insufficient. Only 40 per cent of the working-age population was employed in 2022, among the lowest rates in the region. Women’s participation in the labor force is especially low, at just 21 per cent.
Social inequality has also worsened, with the Gini coefficient-a key measure of income inequality-increasing from 32 to 38 between 2021 and 2023. These disparities are most pronounced in rural and remote areas, where limited access to markets and infrastructure restricts economic opportunities.
The WB’s report highlights the urgent need for Tajikistan to diversify its economy, promote inclusive job growth, and address social and regional inequalities to lay the groundwork for sustained prosperity.
