Uzbekistan’s foreign trade landscape has shifted significantly over recent years.

Economist Mirkomil Holboev said that while exports to China in 2019 were four times higher than those to Afghanistan, by 2025 the situation reversed: shipments to Afghanistan are now 12 per cent higher than those to China, The Caspian Post reports via Uzbek media.

Trade partner rankings have also changed: China, previously second, has fallen to fourth, while Afghanistan jumped from sixth to second, after Russia. In numbers, exports to Afghanistan tripled over this period, while shipments to China dropped by 34 per cent.

The decline in exports to China is largely due to reduced energy deliveries, and even excluding energy products, growth to China remained stagnant. Analysts attribute this to China’s “cheap yuan” policy and the strengthening of Uzbekistan’s national currency, the som.

Interestingly, these shifts run counter to broader economic trends: Afghanistan’s economy shrank by 23 per cent between 2019 and 2023, while China’s economy grew by 28 per cent from 2019 to 2024. Despite this, Uzbekistan’s exports to Afghanistan continue to surge, while its share in the Chinese market declines.