Central Asian countries face pressing questions: is there enough time to implement the necessary reforms, and can they effectively adapt to new realities to avoid a humanitarian and ecological disaster?
Photo: bne IntelliNews
Central Asia is a region where water has always been a vital resource, shaping agriculture, energy, and social stability. It serves as a unifying factor for the region's states but simultaneously fuels tensions and conflicts. Amid growing challenges such as climate change, outdated infrastructure, and population growth, water security has become a crucial issue for Central Asian countries.
In recent years, natural disasters have starkly highlighted the region's vulnerability to global changes. The droughts of 2020–2023 severely impacted agriculture, while the floods of 2024 temporarily replenished water reserves. Meanwhile, glacier melting in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan's mountainous regions continues to reduce the total water resources available to downstream countries. This temporary "surplus," caused by glacier melting and abnormal precipitation, cannot offset structural problems like aging water infrastructure, inefficient usage, and interstate disagreements.
Central Asian countries face pressing questions: is there enough time to implement the necessary reforms, and can they effectively adapt to new realities to avoid a humanitarian and ecological disaster?
Uzbekistan: Battling Outdated Infrastructure
Uzbekistan is at the forefront of water challenges, with most of its territory relying on transboundary water flows. Estimates suggest that only 20% of the country's water comes from internal sources, with the remainder dependent on neighbors—Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. This reliance makes Uzbekistan particularly vulnerable to shrinking water resources.
In 2024, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev described the situation as critical. In response, the government launched a large-scale program to concrete canals, most of which date back to the Soviet era. Of the 13 billion cubic meters of water lost annually, about 12 billion is due to leaks from deteriorating canals. This year alone, 550 kilometers of major canals and over 13,000 kilometers of minor irrigation networks were modernized, saving 450 million cubic meters of water. However, these measures are just the beginning of a long journey.
Addressing the issue requires not only modernizing infrastructure but also adopting advanced water resource management technologies. Additionally, Uzbekistan must strengthen collaboration with neighboring countries to ensure long-term water supply stability.
Kazakhstan: Investing in Innovation and International Cooperation
Kazakhstan exemplifies a comprehensive approach to addressing water issues. At the COP29 conference in Baku in 2024, the country signed a $1.32 billion agreement with the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB). The project aims to construct 11 new reservoirs, modernize over 3,400 kilometers of canals, and implement cutting-edge water management technologies.
The key goal is to reduce water losses by 25% and increase agricultural crop yields by 20%. Special attention is given to building reservoirs in arid regions like the Kyzylorda and Turkestan provinces. By 2030, Kazakhstan plans to construct 57 new reservoirs to significantly enhance its water resilience.
However, like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan depends on transboundary rivers. Success requires bolstering cooperation with neighbors and addressing risks from projects in other countries, such as Afghanistan's construction of the Qosh Tepa canal.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Balancing Domestic Needs and Regional Responsibilities
As the primary water sources for Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan bear immense responsibility for regional water stability. However, domestic challenges such as insufficient reservoirs and outdated infrastructure limit their capacities.
Kyrgyzstan continues to grapple with the equitable distribution of water. Issyk-Kul Lake, one of the country's key natural landmarks, is under threat from climate change and increasing pressure from water users. In 2024 alone, Kyrgyzstan supplied billions of cubic meters of water to its neighbors, sparking discontent among parts of the population who view such exports as excessive.
In Tajikistan, discussions are underway about projects to export water from Lake Sarez. However, implementing such initiatives poses significant ecological and technical risks due to the region's high seismic activity.
Global Challenges and Regional Cooperation
Amid shrinking water resources, Central Asian countries are forced to balance national interests with regional obligations. Notably, any progress in modernizing infrastructure could be undermined without strengthened transboundary cooperation.
An additional risk factor is Afghanistan, which is completing the Qosh Tepa canal project. This initiative could divert up to 20% of the Amu Darya's water, significantly affecting Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan's water supplies.
Central Asia stands on the cusp of profound changes, where water becomes a critical factor in security and stability. The efforts of regional countries are commendable, but the question remains: are these actions swift and substantial enough to avert an impending crisis?
To address the issue successfully, international cooperation must be intensified, innovative technologies adopted, and water usage strategies revisited. Only coordinated actions will enable the region to overcome challenges and secure a sustainable future.
