The ongoing negotiations surrounding the construction of a second nuclear power plant (NPP) in Türkiye raise significant questions about the country's energy independence and its evolving partnership with Moscow. While Russia has expressed interest in the project, Türkiye's immediate focus remains on commissioning the first power unit of the Akkuyu NPP. Türkiye's Minister of Energy, A. Bayraktar, has confirmed that Russia is actively working on the Sinop project, yet the main goal for now is to launch the first reactor at Akkuyu as quickly as possible.
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Is Russia's Participation in the Second NPP Project Likely?
The situation is more complex than it appears. A few months ago, I would have said that the chances of Russia securing the contract for the Sinop NPP were quite high. However, the current cooling of relations between Türkiye and Russia complicates the situation. Strategic projects like energy infrastructure are pivotal for advancing Türkiye's geopolitical ambitions. There are signs that Rosatom may be open to concessions and compromises, which is a positive development. However, it remains unclear what Türkiye might gain in return. If peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia progress, Türkiye might consider granting Russia the opportunity to build the second NPP in Sinop.
Alternative Proposals: South Korea, Japan, and France
There are indeed alternative options on the table. South Korea has shown interest, and negotiations are reportedly underway. Japan was also a contender, but their proposal was deemed too costly. Interestingly, France's proposal seems to be one of the most viable options. Given the potential for a reboot in relations between Türkiye and the European Union, there is a strong possibility that if Rosatom does not secure the project, France might step in.
Akkuyu NPP and Türkiye's Energy Independence
Türkiye's strategy is to diversify its energy sources to meet its growing consumption needs. This strategy includes not only hydroelectric power plants and gas terminals but also wind turbines-though wind energy remains limited in potential. The efficiency of coal-fired power plants is also suboptimal. Therefore, nuclear energy appears to be a critical component of Türkiye's long-term energy strategy. In the coming years, it is plausible that Türkiye will pursue the construction of a third and even a fourth NPP to enhance its energy independence.
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The Future of Russian-Turkish Energy Cooperation
As the 40th anniversary of Russian gas supplies to Türkiye approaches in 2026, the most significant project on the horizon is Russia's plan to establish a gas hub in Türkiye. However, beyond this initiative, no other major projects are currently under discussion. There is some interest in Rosatom's floating nuclear power plants, such as the "Akademik Lomonosov," which could supply electricity to populations of about 300-350 thousand people. However, Russia's willingness to develop this technology for Türkiye appears limited at this stage.
In summary, the direction of Türkiye's nuclear energy projects will significantly influence its energy independence and its relations with both Russia and European partners. The decisions made in the coming months will reveal much about Türkiye's long-term energy strategy and its geopolitical positioning.
