The world is rapidly changing its rules, and increasingly not thanks to superpowers, but in spite of them. Why is this happening, and what role does Azerbaijan play in this new order? Why do Israeli experts call Baku “a state that is ahead of the future”? And could it be that the conversation the world’s capitals prefer to avoid might begin precisely from here?
The Caspian Post interviewed Israeli public figure and political analyst Yuri Lagunin, whose assessments are widely regarded as some of the most sober and uncompromising in contemporary international analysis.
- Yuri, can we say that the international system is going through a “revolution of subjectivity,” in which small states are gaining the ability to set the rules of the game?
photo: Reuters
- In the old system of international relations, there was indeed a certain cult of “collective legitimacy.” Everyone had to “coordinate their position,” “reach a common decision,” “create a unified format.” But as many scholars of international relations correctly note, that era has ended. Liberal universalism has exhausted itself. Today diplomacy is no longer only about compromise; it is also a struggle for control over what the world will look like in 10-20 years. And in this new reality, the strongest are not the giants.
Here I largely share the views of colleagues, both Israeli and Azerbaijani analysts, who point to the examples of Israel and Azerbaijan: both states are small in territory but possess powerful strategies and an extremely high degree of subjectivity. They shape the agenda rather than follow someone else’s. This is the new logic of diplomacy; influence is won not by size or demography, but by acting strategically, quickly and ahead of events.
- Today, Azerbaijan anticipates challenges. But is the world ready for the moment when Azerbaijan will begin to anticipate the solutions to global crises themselves?
photo: APA
- Based on the assessments of many experts and diplomats, and I largely agree with them, Azerbaijan today demonstrates a unique example of how a competent strategy turns a regional state into an indispensable global actor. In recent years, as noted in European capitals, Baku has achieved what was once considered impossible; Europe is now forced to consider its interests, and at times even retreat from its initial positions.
Why did this happen? As colleagues in and beyond Baku constantly stress, Azerbaijan relies on accurate information, anticipatory thinking, diplomatic maneuvering and strategic precision. This is a country that not only responds to challenges but seeks to foresee them. Parallels with Israel are absolutely natural, and they are often drawn by both Azerbaijani and Israeli commentators. Both Israel and Azerbaijan understand that losing subjectivity is a fatal mistake. And in Ukraine’s example, unfortunately, we see what happens when the illusion of strength replaces real resilience.
- Many experts believe we are witnessing the “final test” of Armenia’s readiness for peace. Could Iravan unexpectedly disrupt the logic of the process, and what would that change in the regional architecture?
photo: Azernews
- I would rely here on the assessments of journalists and political scientists who call the Washington meeting an important milestone - a marker, not the final point. And I agree with this. It showed two key things.
First, international actors have effectively acknowledged that without Azerbaijan, and without the political will and leadership of its long-standing president, Ilham Aliyev, the peace process is impossible. This is not just my personal view; this is said openly in Europe and the Middle East.
Second, it became clear that Armenia can no longer endlessly drag out time. As the Azerbaijani press rightly noted, President Ilham Aliyev made it very clear that any external attempts to interfere in the normalization process between the two countries must stop. In essence, it sounded very diplomatic but very firm: “Go mind your own business.”
Today the ball, as analysts like to say, is in Yerevan’s court, and Pashinyan understands this perfectly well. Either Armenia takes a real step toward peace, or it risks falling back into a spiral of instability. Judging by its statements and actions, Baku is truly doing everything possible to avoid a new escalation, and this is acknowledged not only in Azerbaijan but also in independent analytical centers.
- If control over corridors is equal to control over the future, then whose hands will this future be in over the next decade and what role will Azerbaijan play?
photo: Caspianpost
- I fully support the view of logistics and energy experts who call Azerbaijan one of the key centers of the new global infrastructure. The North-South corridor runs through it, the East-West routes, and now the discussed Zangezur corridor. These are not just lines on a map; they are elements of the architecture of the future world order. Control over energy and transport flows is, to a large extent, control over the future.
Azerbaijan, as recognized by specialists, is one of the few players capable of holding all three directions at once without breaking the balance. This earns respect even from those who are not always willing to admit it publicly. That is why Baku’s influence is growing. It does not impose its will through pressure; rather, as one Azerbaijani colleague aptly put it, it “dictates rules through the space of opportunities.” This is the strategy of smart, soft, but very effective influence.
- Many now speak about the revival of mediation as an art. In the case of Ukraine, could Azerbaijan become the actor that unexpectedly changes the rules and becomes the place where the conversation, which nobody publicly acknowledges yet, begins?
photo: Kyiv Independent
- In my view, and based on the opinions of many colleagues, this is more than realistic. Azerbaijan has already shown that it can maintain dialogue even between those who do not communicate directly. The example of the normalization between Israel and Türkiye is often recalled. Analysts repeatedly noted that Baku played a quiet but very important mediating role.
Azerbaijan has three key advantages, and this is not a compliment but a well-established assessment in the analytical community: genuine independence, high international reputation and a unique ability to speak with all poles - from Ankara to Moscow and from Tel Aviv to Brussels.
The Washington meeting has only strengthened this position. If Russia and Ukraine at some point reach real negotiations, and many believe this will eventually happen, Baku will be one of the best neutral hubs for launching a new “architectural conversation” about security. And I fully share this assessment.
- Can we say that Israel’s involvement in Azerbaijan’s energy projects is not just business, but part of a broader geo-economic design that will reshape the balance of power in the Middle East and the South Caucasus?
photo: AI
- The prospects are indeed enormous, and this is recognized both in Baku and Jerusalem. Israel has already offered Azerbaijan a whole package of projects in various fields - from medicine and agriculture to green technologies and tourism.
Especially in demand, according to Azerbaijani experts, are Israeli solutions in solar energy, intensive agriculture, water-storage climate systems, soil restoration technologies and medical resort innovations. I share the view of those who predict large investments soon in hotel and health resort infrastructure in the liberated territories. This will create thousands of jobs and support the Great Return of the population to their homes.
There is another important point economists often highlight. Israeli companies are among the few foreign entities granted licenses to participate in Azerbaijan’s energy and gas projects. This is not only Israel investing in Azerbaijan; it is Azerbaijan integrating into a broader economic space from which both sides benefit. Many rightly consider this two-way effect the result of years of fruitful cooperation.
Notably, after Azerbaijan opened its embassy in Israel in 2023, relations, as diplomats say, reached a qualitatively new level. More and more Israelis are choosing Baku for tourism and business visits. And I am sure this is only the beginning of a long and very promising story.
- What is more important today for the survival of states - military power or the ability to build networks of trust and alliances like the Baku-Tel Aviv partnership?
photo: APA
- The world has truly approached a critical point where familiar geopolitical mechanisms no longer work and the global security architecture seems to be cracking under the pressure of growing contradictions. At such moments, one understands clearly that we live not just in an era of change, but in an era of shocks.
Here I cannot help recalling the words of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, widely quoted by analysts in Israel. In his inauguration speech, he said what many leaders think but dare not say openly: “The world is in fact close to a Third World War.” These words sound harsh, but such directness is exactly what is needed today. Political correctness stopped being a tool capable of saving global security a long time ago.
Telling the truth means warning. Warning means giving a chance to prevent.
This is why states with resilience, strategic thinking and internal coherence are especially needed today. Israel and Azerbaijan, in the view of many international observers, are among those rare players able not only to maintain balance in their regions but also influence broader processes.
Our countries, each with its history, experience and scars, understand well the price of stability. We know that security is not an abstract word; it is daily work, responsibility and the readiness to make decisions that determine the fate of millions.
That is why I always emphasize that journalists, analysts and experts are part of a larger process. We must strengthen the information bridges between Israel and Azerbaijan, expand mutual understanding, and give our societies the chance to see each other without distortions. Global turbulence only increases the need for such work, because the future, no matter how tense today seems, must still be built on the principles of peace, security and mutual respect. This is not pathos; it is a geopolitical necessity.
And I say this absolutely sincerely: as an Israeli citizen, as someone who has observed the dynamics of our cooperation for many years, I am glad that Azerbaijan was, is and, I am sure, will remain a true strategic partner and friend of Israel. This partnership is one of those rare sources of stability so vital amid global turbulence. And it is possible that precisely such reliable alliances, built on mutual respect and responsibility, will help us avoid what the whole world so deeply fears.
